Tag: market trends

Market Commentary 2/4/22

Admin
February 4, 2022

Yields Spike On Blow Out Jobs Number 

The Jobs picture proved to be better than expected as November and December payroll data was revised up by a total of 709,000 jobs. The January employment report gain of 467,000 caught many forecasters off-guard. Most believed the combination of the Omicron variant, reduction in seasonal holiday jobs, and decreased travel spending, would prevent such a robust report.  More importantly, bonds spiked due to the better expected report and the increase in average hourly earnings, which rose .7%, above the .5% expected (remember wage inflation is sticky). The January Jobs Report has all but cemented a March lift-off in short-term interest rates.  A 50 BPS point rate increase can no longer be discounted as the labor market is tighter than expected and inflation is proving to be harder to tame.   

Across the pond is the same story as inflation is smashing records.  The Bank of England raised overnight lending rates and the ECB had to walk back dovish commentary on rate increases as fears of inflation threaten to become embedded within their economy.  Rising global rates will put pressure on the U.S. to act as well.  It can be argued that various central bankers waited too long to raise rates and are now embarking on a rate increase path while the global economic recovery is showing signs of possible slowing. A mixed bag of earnings is providing no clear sign of where the economy is headed.  Common themes in earnings reports relate to ongoing issues with inflationary pressures and supply chains. How much cost companies can pass on to consumers will decide which industries do well and which are hit hard in the coming months.  Oil is now above 90 per barrel. Food and basic goods have all increased in price. If this continues it will hit the economy as consumers’ pocketbooks are getting stretched.     

Volatility in both equities and bonds is expected to continue with the Fed’s focus more on main street instead of Wall Street.  How far markets would have to slide for the so-called Fed to be activated is anyone’s guess. However, with 40% of Americans uninvested in the stock market and really feeling the pinch of inflation and two years of lockdowns due to Covid, the Fed will let markets fall as they beat down inflation. A volatile equity market may be a good thing for real estate purchases as it will provide a more level playing field for buyers and sellers. Rising rates, which are still very low but not in the extraordinarily low bucket any longer, will also keep real estate values from ascending at the recent clip. Keeping home affordability sustainable will be key to the housing market going forward.  For those on the fence and worried about monthly mortgage payments, now is time to move as rates seem headed about 2.000% on the 10-Year Treasury note. Careful attention must now be placed on the 2-10 Treasury spread as it flattens. This could be a sign of tougher times if this relationship is compressed further.  Also, Fed speak in the coming weeks will be watched closely. The markets are fragile and a misstep by the Fed could create increased volatility and large price swings in bonds and equities.  

Market Commentary 1/28/22

damon Damon Germanides
January 28, 2022

Fed Set To Raise Rates Elevates Market Unease

This week’s widely anticipated Fed meeting confirmed to markets that inflation is an ongoing problem. To calm inflation and inflation-related expectations, the Fed is reversing course by running off QE and warning the markets that short-term interest rates will rise this year. They are less concerned about the markets going down, especially given the run-up in asset prices over the last two years.  It is important for investors to understand that the Fed has been very dovish with policy for many years (minus short periods of time that the Fed tried to be more hawkish). It has been understood that the Fed would step in should markets go down. However, with CPI running near 7% and the PCE running near 5%, the Fed is faced with both a mounting inflation problem and a tight employment market, which increases the chances that they will be self-fulfilling.  We believe inflation for goods and services will likely come down, but we are less convinced that wage inflation will cool off. There are simply too many job openings and too few employees willing to fill these jobs. Higher wages will be needed to inspire individuals who have left the workforce back into it. This has pushed the Fed to act on inflation while the U.S. economy is still relatively strong. 

Since the start of 2022, equity, crypto, and bond markets have experienced heightened volatility.  This volatility is probably a good thing in the long term as it will squash speculation (think Meme stocks) and slow growth in asset classes like real estate.  While we all welcome healthy appreciation in the assets we own, outsized year-over-year gains in any market are troubling. Many individuals, especially younger ones, believe markets only go up. That is far from true. 

Volatile equity and crypto markets are positive for the housing market, as individuals seek to buy property for its durability and stability. While rising rates will create more friction between buyers and sellers on an agreed-upon sales price, the stability of owning hard assets cannot be discounted.  Also, lenders remain committed to keeping business flowing. They are taking less of a margin in order to hold down interest rates and lure in prospective borrowers. Keep an eye on the 10-year as it has moved up and is settling in around 1.82%.  A quick rise above 2.22% could be painful for all markets, real estate included. 

Market Commentary 12/17/21

Admin
December 17, 2021

Yields Fall Surprisingly Lower As Fed Acknowledges Inflation Is No Longer Transitory

It was a very interesting week for the equity and bond markets. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, finally acknowledged inflation is running hotter than Fed models expected. As employment gains move the U.S. closer to full employment and with inflation running at levels not seen in decades, the Fed simultaneously agreed to start tapering mortgage bonds and Treasury purchases, also known as QE. The Fed also expects to raise short-term rates starting the middle of next year. The Fed Chair stated that if the new Omicron variant creates havoc on the economy, the policy would be subject to change. Long bond yields fell on this news as equities moved higher, anathema to what one would expect on the idea that the Fed would become less accommodative. However, equities ended the week on a low note, and tech was hit particularly hard. The more interesting observation is to understand why long bond yielding is moving lower and why the yield curve flattening. The thought is that bond traders are sensing that a slowing economy is in front of us; possibly a recession. A flattening yield curve must be watched carefully and is now a key indicator used by many economists for guidance as to the health of the global economic recovery. 

We have spoken ad nauseam about inflation not being transitory and we are now being proved correct on this belief. Hard assets such as real estate have long been prized during inflationary periods. That being said, real estate should remain a great hedge against inflation. In addition, low mortgage rates amidst surging inflation is a never-before-seen phenomenon, so while valuations are high, payments remain low. The appeal of paying fixed payment debts with inflating wages creates positive arbitrage and more disposable income as borrowers and businesses continue to lock in low monthly interest expenses.

Why might rates not move up much? The biggest reason is Uncle Sam’s balance sheet is so massive that a rapid rise in rates will create a payment burden. Furthermore, rapidly rising interest rates would put additional stress on the equities market and hurt consumer spending should stock portfolios drop steeply.  No one has a crystal ball, but a mild rise in rates over the coming year seems likely with the 10 year Treasury leveling off around 2.00% to 2.25%, especially if economic activity slows.

Market Commentary 10/22/21

Admin
October 22, 2021

There is a growing sense that the U.S. markets are fully priced. That does not mean that U.S. equities, crypto, and real estate assets cannot go higher, or that bond yields will immediately shoot up. The Fed is making it clear in its messaging that inflation is becoming more of a concern, and that it’s time to begin reducing the extraordinary monetary stimulus that served the U.S. economy well during the Covid pandemic. Many economists believe that the Fed will announce tapering at the next Fed meeting in November. 

By back-stopping the bond market and including BBB-rated bonds, there’s no dispute the Fed’s actions have created inflation. This includes the act of pumping the printing press with transfer payments in a way never before imagined in response to a once in a 100-year pandemic. The big question is determining how the world has changed post-Covid and if we’re entering a new period of sustained inflation. With help-wanted signs everywhere and companies of all sizes paying up for employees, it is starting to feel as if there is a changing dynamic within the workforce. Surprisingly, employees are not being lured in by these higher wages. Perhaps this is due to the incredible rise in home valuation, or in part by how much money has been made trading stocks and crypto. With the pandemic waning, the next few months of economic data will be closely be monitored to determine if employment rates drop as Federal stimulus payments end and Americans continue to get vaccinated; or if something else is at work. Consumer inflation is also at near 30-year highs. We continue to be told that bottlenecks and supply chains are the cause of rising costs but this theory is losing steam as inflation holds firm. 

Home sales remain very active and borrowers remain well qualified. The pace of transactions has slowed a bit, but that may be good for the market and bring in more sellers. Mortgage banks are providing attractive financing options for larger-sized purchases, especially for those borrowers with hard to analyze income. Refinance volume is slowing as expected. It may be a now or never for those borrowers looking to lock in ultra-low interest rates as the 10 year U.S. Treasury touched above 1.700% on Friday before settling in a bit lower.  With inflation running hot and the Fed exiting the bond purchase market, bond traders will begin demanding higher yields. 

05_21_2021_blog

Market Commentary 5/21/21

damon Damon Germanides
May 21, 2021

Mortgage Rates Hold Up As Economic Recovery Continues

In another volatile week on Wall Street, cryptocurrencies crashed as much as 40% in one day before rebounding although Bitcoin remains down significantly from highs reached just a few weeks ago. Existing home sales slipped as home prices across the country hit all-time highs. Affordability will become an issue if home prices continue to surge. Inflation data is concerning but for the moment the bond market is in agreement with the Fed that inflation is more transitory in nature and will settle back down as the year progresses and the U.S. economy normalizes. However, if month-over-month inflation readings push higher, interest rates will spike quickly and the Fed will be forced to act. For now, the combination of ultra-low interest rates and global money printing is the tonic pushing some sectors of equities, real estate, and alternative assets to nosebleed levels. In my primary field of expertise, residential real estate lending, bidding wars on properties are stretching out prices even beyond what the property appraisals. While this is not common, it is happening frequently enough right now to warrant comment. Leverage levels in the equity markets are also very high. Caution is advisable in this environment.

However, banks and mortgage banks are pushing product like I have not seen in many years. While underwriting has loosened up, lenders are still doing proper due diligence and demanding a fair amount of borrower’s “skin in the game” which is keeping prices from being even higher. Many of our borrowers are highly qualified and the combination of low rates and a strong financial statement opens the door to incredibly low rates. Since interest rates are so low, prospective buyers of new homes are justifying the higher price against ultra-low monthly payments and jumping into the market. With supply so tight, buyers must act quickly or miss out on the property.  

Looking ahead to next week, we have core inflation data, housing data, and personal spending data. All the important reports have given the markets’ jitters on inflation. 

06_26_2020_blog

Market Commentary 6/26/20

damon Damon Germanides
June 26, 2020

Major U.S. indexes fell this week as Covid-19 cases surged, putting the economic re-openings at risk. The resurgence of Covid-19 overshadowed what had been positive consumer-related data this week. Consumer spending, which had been on the upswing, slowed down. The notion of a quick recovery is unclear and the rise in infection rates suggest the recovery will be choppy.  Should the economy stall, we fully expect there will be more Fed stimulus and lending programs to help individuals and businesses get to the other side.  

Home buying and mortgage applications, at least in Southern California, have seen a major uptick. We are encouraged by this activity. Housing has been sheltered from this pandemic and is in a much better place than other real estate sectors, such as commercial properties and retail. Our L.A. office has been receiving a surge in applications as borrowers’ businesses recover and interest rates remain at historical lows. While we don’t expect rates to go too much lower, if equity volatility continues to increase, we may see rates drop. 

06_12_2020_blog

Market Commentary 6/12/20

damon Damon Germanides
June 12, 2020

Stocks sold off hard this week following a strong rally last week which had been ignited by a better than expected May jobs report. Thursday of this week (June 11, 2020) was a risk-off day that shook the equity markets as the market digested sobering comments by the Fed chair regarding the economic recovery combined with regional upticks in Covid-19 infection rates. Yet there is a positive takeaway in yesterday’s brutal pull-back. After a dramatic rise over the past several weeks in stocks, sharp sell-offs washed out speculators and may help prevent a bubble. Lately, there has been a lot of chatter about speculators profiting by betting on de facto bankrupt companies whose prices in some instances have surged more than 100% in a single day.  

Friday morning provided some relief to equities with a partial rebound. This is a welcome sign that Thursday’s sell-off was not the beginning of a deep sell-off. Treasury and mortgage rates fell as money moved into the safe haven of government-guaranteed bonds. The Fed’s stimulus operations will continue indefinitely which will keep interest rates very low and will also entice investors into more risky assets such as stocks, high yielding debt, and real estate. 

The Fed is committed to propping up the markets as we work through the process of getting our economy back on track. No doubt this will take time but there are some encouraging signs of a nascent economic recovery. However, the economy remains very fragile.

Currently, mortgage rates are low and may go lower. Lenders are slowly gaining the confidence underwriting files a bit more generously. Housing supply is in our main market, Southern California, and buyers are re-entering the market. These are all welcome signs that the worst may be behind us. Continue to expect mortgage rates to be priced favorably, especially on higher loan-to-value loan transactions, but perhaps not quite as well one would expect. Once banks have a better handle on the direction of deferred payment, we believe pricing overall will improve even further. Keep an eye on infection rates, manufacturing data, and consumer confidence. If these data points move favorably, interest rates on mortgages will price sharper in the coming months.      

Dec-20-blog

Market Commentary 12/20/19

damon Damon Germanides
December 20, 2019

The U.S. equity markets traded at all-time highs on the last full trading week of the year. The market’s soaring prices were propelled to record levels by accommodative monetary policy, positive news on the U.S. – China trade deal, a strong consumer, and unwinding of recession fears. Final GDP 3rd quarter numbers were also released on Friday and were not revised, showing economic growth growing at a respectable 2.1%. Overall, the U.S. economy is in good shape and the recent stock market gains are a vote of confidence, supporting that narrative.

Homebuilders remain confident and housing starts surprised to the upside earlier in the year. Most economists had predicted the 10-year U.S. Treasury would end 2019 at above 3.000%. The plunge lower in rates (10-year U.S. Treasury currently at ~1.92%) has been a big factor in spurring home purchases and refinances, as well as underpinning the surge in equities and other asset prices. If rates remain low, we would expect the consumer to remain bullish and continue to spend on autos, homes, and other high-cost durable goods.

Banks remain aggressive on pricing and mortgage banks continue to serve the demand by self-employed borrowers who face challenges documenting their income. Rates are low and should be locked-in. Continued positive data both in the U.S. and abroad could lift rates higher. Then again, maybe they won’t.

May-17-blog

Market Commentary 5/17/19

damon Damon Germanides
May 17, 2019

In a volatile week on Wall Street, bonds have traded well with the 10-year Treasury note touching 2.350% for the week. Market strategists have had to react to both tough trade talk on China by the Trump administration, as well as elevated tensions with Iran in the Middle East in directing trades this week. Traders flight to quality investments benefited high-quality bond yields such as government-guaranteed and A-paper mortgage debt with yields moving slightly lower but within a tight band.

Back home, the U.S. economy is humming, job growth is robust, and inflation is tame as evidenced by GDP expanding at a 3.2% annual pace in the first quarter. Unemployment touched a 50-year low and year-over-year CPI is running at 1.9%. This begs the question “why are rates so low?” The answer probably lies in long-term economic growth forecasts as well as fears of a looming recession given the potential for an elongated trade negotiation with China and anemic economic growth out of Europe and Japan.  Continue to keep an eye on the 2-10 Treasury spread as signs of looming trouble ahead. For the moment, the spread is around 19 basis points and rebounding from the 9 basis point spread just a short while ago.  Treasury inversions are one of the most reliable indicators of a recession and need to be taken seriously when they occur.

Home sales have rebounded due to both the time of year as spring is an important home buying season enhanced by the low-interest rate environment. Our feeling remains that the economy is strong and rates should be higher. However, we have no magic ball and so for the moment, we continue to advise clients to lock-in interest rates at these highly attractive levels.

May-10-blog

Market Commentary 5/10/19

damon Damon Germanides
May 10, 2019

U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in April but less than expected.  Low inflation readings will keep a lid on bond yields, as well as reinforce the Fed’s position keeping short-term lending rates unchanged for the rest of the year.  With inflation in check, some are opining for the Fed to lower interest rates. We tend to disagree and believe a wait-and-see position by the Fed is wiser, as there are some indicators that inflation may pick up and that ultimately these low inflation readings may be transitory.

In other important news, trade talks fell apart this week with China.  This resulted in higher tariffs being placed today on Chinese goods imported into the U.S., which will likely lead to retaliation from China sometime in the near future. How these negotiations go is anyone’s guess, but the consensus is that a deal will be struck eventually.  However, there is always a chance that negotiations could fall apart and a full-blown trade war will occur, or that these negotiations will drag on much longer than expected. Those fears, while remote, have helped push long-dated treasury bonds lower in what is known as a “flight to quality.” The trade tensions also dented equities this week as analysts reassess the effects of ongoing trade tensions on future economic growth and corporate earnings.   

Low rates do benefit our borrowers and have spurred both a good home buying season, as well as our clients who have refinanced into lower rates. With the 10-year Treasury note trading under 2.500%, we remain biased toward locking in interest rates. Should the U.S. strike a trade deal with China, we could easily see rates move up from here.