Tag: market trends

Market Commentary 03/21/2025

Damon Germanides
March 21, 2025

Market Recap & Key Economic Indicators

Stocks ended the week in positive territory after another period of volatility. The Federal Reserve maintained its stance on interest rates, opting for a “wait and see” approach instead of initiating rate cuts. Key takeaways from the Fed’s latest commentary suggest that the economy remains stable, with a slight expected increase in unemployment—though not significant enough to justify a major policy shift. The Fed continues to project positive GDP growth for the year.

One area of concern was the Fed’s discussion on tariffs and their inflationary impact. While tariffs may introduce one-time cost increases for certain goods, it’s worth noting that imports account for approximately 15% of the total U.S. GDP. As a result, the overall impact on inflation may be less severe than some forecasts suggest. That said, tariff uncertainties continue to create market disruptions, though the broader U.S. economy may absorb these effects more constructively than many anticipate.

Oil, Bonds, and Interest Rates

The ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia and its potential to resolve the conflict threatens to put downward pressure on oil prices. Historically, bond yields and oil prices have moved in tandem, meaning that a decline in oil could contribute to lower interest rates. With oil as a fundamental input cost across multiple industries, any drop in energy prices would also help temper inflationary pressures.

Breakdown of U.S. Treasury Debt: The composition of outstanding U.S. Treasury debt is as follows:

  • $6.4 trillion in Treasury bills (maturing in one year or less)
  • $14.7 trillion in Treasury notes (maturing in 2-10 years)
  • $4.9 trillion in Treasury bonds (20- and 30-year maturities)
  • $2.0 trillion in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)
  • $0.63 trillion in Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)

With a significant portion of this debt rolling over from historically low interest rates, concerns around the U.S. interest expense and rising deficit spending are intensifying. Many economists and bond traders believe the nation is approaching a tipping point, where ongoing deficit growth and increasing debt-servicing costs may become unsustainable.

Housing Market & Economic Indicators to Watch

February’s existing home sales came in stronger than expected, a positive sign for those operating in the existing home sales market. After nearly two years of muted activity, there are early indications that homebuyers may be gradually returning. While better home sales support a strong economy, other signals suggest the economy is slowing. Mixed signals make forecasting difficult.

Given the uncertain economic environment, we are closely monitoring the following key indicators to assess the direction of interest rates and overall market conditions:

  1. Oil prices – A leading indicator of inflationary pressures
  2. 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury yield spread – A key gauge of economic sentiment and recession risk
  3. Weekly unemployment claims – A real-time measure of labor market health
  4. Automobile loan delinquencies – A potential warning sign of consumer financial stress
  5. Housing starts – A crucial indicator of real estate market momentum

We remain vigilant in tracking these factors to provide a clearer outlook on interest rates and broader economic trends.

Market Commentary 03/14/2025

Damon Germanides
March 14, 2025

Economy, Tariffs, & Interest Rates

U.S. equities saw heightened volatility this week, with the S&P briefly entering correction territory before rebounding strongly. Bonds rose on Friday and ended the week higher, suggesting that market fears may have been exaggerated. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to burden investors. While some evidence suggests the U.S. economy can perform well amidst higher tariffs, most economists warn of restricted growth and inflationary pressures. However, some financial experts argue that pro-growth policies, deregulation, and AI-driven productivity gains could offset these costs, contributing to market volatility.

Consumer confidence declined more than expected, driven by high living costs and tariff uncertainty. While business confidence remains elevated, there are growing concerns that the economy is slowing. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to weigh on investors. Business travel is slowing, with mixed reports from public companies suggesting increased uncertainty and consumer distress.

Recession fears have intensified as banks lower year-end forecasts for the S&P. While this could lead to lower interest rates over time, government spending reductions may create short-term economic challenges. A market reset could help bring home prices down, providing relief for buyers currently priced out of homeownership. However, commercial real estate could face renewed pressure as banks tighten lending and push borrowers to refinance or pay down loans. Many properties have seen equity eroded or wiped out, fueling demand for private bridge and mezzanine lending as large funds raise capital to fill financing gaps.

Market Commentary 03/07/2025

Damon Germanides
March 7, 2025

Uncertain Economic Data Pushes Mortgage Rates Lower

Markets remain volatile as concerns over economic slowdown and tariff uncertainties weigh on equities. The Nasdaq has been hit particularly hard, with many high-profile tech stocks trading lower. The rotation out of technology has significantly impacted stocks like Tesla, which has sharply declined. However, Tesla is not alone—many high-beta AI and technology stocks are undergoing a pricing adjustment. Given that the “Magnificent 7” were the primary drivers of equity appreciation over the past two years, their decline could substantially impact broader markets and consumer spending should they fall further.

The February Jobs Report indicated a slight slowdown in hiring amid rising economic uncertainty and government layoffs. Bond traders viewed the report as modestly positive, with the unemployment rate ticking up and earnings growth easing,

The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model projects a -2.4% slowdown, signaling potential economic contraction. In recent years, government and healthcare jobs have driven employment growth, but these sectors do not necessarily contribute to GDP expansion like private sector job creation does. As post-COVID recovery stabilizes and government stimulus fades, the likelihood of an economic downturn increases. While business confidence remains high, consumer concerns over the cost of living persist. Additionally, weak housing data is troubling, as home sales are a key driver of economic growth, supporting jobs and consumer spending.

The elevated uncertainty has pushed bond yields lower across the market, with the 10-year Treasury (the benchmark for most real estate loans) declining significantly. This has resulted in more favorable mortgage rates. Banks and credit unions continue to offer competitive pricing on both residential and commercial loans, except for office properties, which remain a challenging sector for lenders. Abundant private credit is also pushing bridge and other types of more temporary financing rates lower as competition for better quality deals heats up.

Market Commentary 02/28/25

Damon Germanides
February 28, 2025

Market Update: Interest Rates Decline Amid Rising Volatility

Interest rates continued to fall this week as market volatility increased. Equities, including Tesla and Palantir, experienced significant sell-offs, driving investors toward a risk-off environment that favored bonds. Additionally, growing concerns over a slowing economy contributed to the downward movement in yields.

Key Economic Data & Market Indicators

This week’s economic data highlighted a sharp decline in housing sales—an expected outcome given high home prices and elevated borrowing costs. Weekly unemployment claims also saw a notable increase, signaling potential softening in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, aligned with expectations, providing a supportive reading for bond yields.

The Trump administration, through the Department of Government Efficiency, has introduced cost-cutting measures, including job reductions. While bond markets have responded positively in the short term, extended job cuts could weigh on economic growth.

Adding to economic uncertainty are ongoing tariff threats, which could disrupt global trade. The yield curve remains exceptionally flat, with portions re-inverting—historically a warning sign of recession. Many traders are closely monitoring these signals for potential market shifts.

Consumer Spending: Who’s Driving Growth?

Recent reports indicate that the wealthiest 20% of U.S. households are fueling most of the country’s consumer spending and economic growth. This trend is unsurprising, given that high home and equity values—paired with savings yields of 4% to 5%—have largely shielded this group from inflationary pressures.

However, many Americans continue to struggle with rising costs, as cumulative inflation has pushed prices up nearly 23% over the past few years. A key risk to spending remains equity market performance—if stocks correct significantly, even affluent consumers may reduce discretionary purchases. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $107,000 to $84,000—a 21% decline—underscores the volatility in high-risk assets. A broader sell-off across equities and alternative investments could further dampen consumer spending.

Mortgage Rates & Lending Conditions

One bright spot in the current market is the continued decline in mortgage rates, improving affordability for both residential and commercial borrowers.

• Residential Mortgages: Some banks are now offering rates below 6%, with highly qualified borrowers securing loans under 5.5% through relationship pricing.

• Commercial Loans (Sub-$15M): Banks and credit unions are pricing multi-family, retail, and owner-user loans below 6%.

• No-Income Verification Loans: Currently in the mid-6% range for loans up to $5 million.

Bridge Financing Becomes More Competitive

• Professional Developers (Renovation Loans): Leverage-based loans available at 7.99%.

• Bridge & Value-Add Multi-Family Loans: Rates range from 7.99% to 9.50%, depending on loan size and unit count.

Lower borrowing costs should help stimulate both home sales and refinancing activity, particularly if yields continue their downward trajectory.

As economic uncertainty lingers, all eyes remain on interest rates, inflation data, and equity market trends—factors that will shape investment decisions and financial markets in the months ahead. Subscribe to our weekly market commentary to stay up to date. 

Market Commentary 02/21/2025

Damon Germanides
February 23, 2025

Persistent Inflation and Weak Economic Data Rattle Equity Markets

This week, weaker-than-expected economic data, tariff uncertainty, and a rise in consumer inflation expectations pummeled stocks. In addition, consumer sentiment fell short of forecasts. It’s important to remember that confidence is the cheapest form of economic stimulus. As we have written for over two years, persistently high living costs and elevated housing expenses are wearing down everyday Americans.

The general public isn’t reassured by inflation returning to 2%. Cumulatively, prices have risen above 20%, while wages have yet to catch up. Consumer dollars simply aren’t stretching as far as they once did. A particularly worrisome signal comes from Walmart’s disappointing financial results, despite the retailer’s history of benefiting from consumers seeking better value. Some analysts speculate this could be a sign that consumers are nearing their breaking point, as inflation continues to erode spending power.

Bond yields responded as expected, with interest rates moving significantly lower later in the week. Treasury officials clarified their stance on issuing longer-dated bonds, easing pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield. Since most financial debt instruments—including mortgages, commercial loans, and auto loans—are priced off the 5-, 7-, and 10-year Treasury yields, this decline is a welcome development. With the 10-year Treasury below 4.50%, we anticipate mortgage rates to decline in the coming week. 

As for the Fed, they remain in a wait-and-see mode. Recent inflation data suggests they may have acted too soon and too aggressively with their initial 50-basis-point rate cut. While short-term interest rates remain restrictive, they may not be restrictive enough to cool inflation. With markets holding up reasonably well, the Fed finds itself in a challenging position with both inflation and inflation expectations rising. The likelihood of additional rate cuts appears remote. If inflation data continues to come in hotter than expected, expect discussions around the potential need for a rate hike.

Market Commentary 02/07/2025

Damon Germanides
February 7, 2025

Fed Remains On Pause Due To Jobs Report

Consumer Sentiment & Jobs Report

U.S. consumer sentiment declined as concerns over tariffs and the already high cost of living dampened confidence. The January Jobs Report indicated a slowing yet resilient labor market, with unemployment moving to 4%. Wage growth accelerated, contributing to higher bond yields, as rising wages put further pressure on inflation. Given persistent inflation concerns and a solid jobs report, the Fed will likely remain on hold for the foreseeable future.

As we’ve noted before, inflation doesn’t simply disappear. Once prices rise, they rarely decline, requiring wages to grow gradually over time to offset higher costs. However, the post-COVID inflation surge has created “sticky inflation,” the cumulative rise in the cost of goods and services will take years for incomes to catch up. This presents a key challenge for the Fed, reinforcing the likelihood of interest rates staying higher for longer.

Treasury & Interest Rate Outlook

Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a focus on lowering long-term Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year, currently at 4.6%, rather than reducing short-term rates. However, the term premium between short- and long-term rates is already tight, limiting flexibility unless an inverted yield curve is the goal. His strategy appears to hinge on deficit reduction, energy cost management, and economic growth to bring long-term rates down, which could lead to lower short-term rates.

From our perspective, interest rates are not unreasonably high, given the current 3% GDP growth and 3% inflation environment. The bigger issue remains government spending, which likely contains far more inefficiencies than initially assumed. If spending is significantly reduced, bond yields could fall sharply. The effectiveness of this approach remains to be seen.

Market Commentary 02/01/2025

Damon Germanides
February 1, 2025

Broad Thoughts On Economy, Real Estate & Direction Of Interest Rates

Market Volatility and Economic Trends

This past week saw significant market swings, with technology-focused equities taking a sharp hit on news that Chinese firm Deep Seek may have developed a more efficient and cost-effective way to use large language models. Nonetheless, U.S. equities rebounded by the end of the week, as buy-the-dip investors capitalized on lower entry prices. Mid-week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convened, and kept short-term rates unchanged as expected, maintaining their wait-and-see approach. Bond yields remained flat following the announcement. However, late Friday, equities dropped lower and bond yields rose higher after President Trump announced new tariffs on a range of imports, with the markets reacting to the potential inflationary impact of trade restrictions.

Inflation and Housing Market Pressures

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), met expectations. However, inflation appears to be flattening rather than falling, meaning that prices are still rising—aggravating the cumulative cost of living increases over the past several years. Housing costs have climbed alongside interest rates, creating an affordability crisis for younger home buyers, step-up borrowers, and empty nesters. Many homeowners remain reluctant to sell, unwilling to give up 3% mortgage rates in favor of significantly higher financing costs. This dynamic has stifled the existing home market while benefiting large homebuilders, who can offer mortgage buy-downs, build at scale, and outcompete smaller builders on cost.

Banking and Distressed Real Estate Opportunities

Anecdotally, some banks that anticipated lower rates by now are reassessing their approach to impaired borrowers. Higher input and financing costs and rising cap rates have made real estate investing challenging—except for those in private credit. If banks begin applying pressure, opportunities for distressed property acquisitions could emerge regionally.

Credit Markets and Speculation

Corporate interest rate spreads remain historically tight, suggesting too much liquidity chasing too few deals. The ongoing speculation in crypto, AI, and meme stocks further reinforces the idea that cash remains abundant in the financial system. While some industries—such as real estate, manufacturing, and autos— struggle due to reliance on low debt yields, many sectors appear largely unaffected by higher interest rates.

Market Commentary 01/17/2025

Damon Germanides
January 17, 2025

Stock Market and Bond Yields Rally With Softer Than Expected Inflation Data

The stock market rose while bond yields retreated, as both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in better than expected. After months of high financing costs, these favorable inflation reports provided some relief. However, it’s important to remain realistic about how low interest rates can drop, with the economy growing at 3% and inflation trending at 3%. Oil prices have climbed to nearly $80 per barrel, exacerbating inflationary pressures. On top of everything, the recent LA fires are projected to become the largest natural disaster in U.S. history. The event is expected to drive up insurance premiums nationwide, increasing financial pressure on many Americans who endured a 23% rise in inflation since January 2020.

We anticipate the 10-year Treasury yield to normalize between 4% and 5%. Hopes for significantly lower rates hinge on addressing the U.S. government’s mounting debt and deficit spending. Incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has voiced concerns about excessive government expenditures. If the government takes steps to streamline spending and improve operational efficiency, it could send a positive signal to bond markets. While significant cuts to federal spending seem unlikely, even modest reforms could help stabilize the bond market. There’s also potential for mortgage credit spreads to tighten, which could provide some relief for borrowers if Treasury yields remain elevated. Notably, the Fed’s recent 100 basis-point rate cuts have been offset by a corresponding increase in the 10-year Treasury yield, negating the intended benefits for borrowers.

Single Family Mortgage Rates

Despite elevated interest rates, several banks are keeping mortgage spreads over Treasuries tight. High-net-worth borrowers willing to establish banking relationships can still secure mortgage rates in the mid-5% range. For buyers in middle-income areas, some community banks are offering high-leverage loans near 6%. Additionally, niche products for self-employed professionals, including doctors and lawyers, provide financing up to 90%-100% with no mortgage insurance and flexible qualification criteria based on newer income.

Commercial and Business Loans

Entrepreneurs seeking financing for commercial real estate or business needs can expect rates starting at SOFR + 2.50%, with options for tailored structures such as limited prepayment penalties, cross-collateralization, and interest-only terms. Business loans are also available at Prime for borrowers seeking under $15 million.

Construction Loans

Construction financing remains available but challenging to secure. Rates for high-net-worth borrowers start at 6%, while multi-family construction loans begin at 6.5%. Private credit options offering higher leverage are available but come with rates starting at 9.25%.

This environment offers opportunities for savvy borrowers, but navigating the current market requires a strategic approach and careful lender selection. Insignia Mortgage is here to help with lending solutions.

Market Commentary 11/15/2024

Damon Germanides
November 15, 2024

Market Yields Rise As Fed Signals Pause

Market and Economic Insights

Bond yields have seen a significant rise in recent weeks, with traders assessing the impact of President Trump’s pro-business, pro-spending agenda on inflation and the broader economy. While a strong economy supports higher yields, concerns over tariffs and a focus on on-shoring U.S. manufacturing are inflationary. At the same time, plans to expand domestic oil and gas production could counterbalance inflation. Worries over the growing national deficit and ballooning debt continue to push yields upward.

Inflation and Cost of Living Concerns

We’ve expressed concerns about inflation risks previously, and they remain. The cost of living has surged over the past few years, leaving many Americans struggling to keep up with price increases. Despite economists’ claims of cooling inflation, everyday expenses have risen significantly as incomes lag. This disconnect leaves many feeling uneasy about their financial stability.

Fed’s Policy and Market Reactions

The Fed is signaling a halt to further rate cuts in December. Currently, Bloomberg places the odds of a cut at under 60%, down from over 85% just a few weeks ago. A booming equity market, tight credit spreads, and a surge in cryptocurrencies suggest that financial conditions may not be as restrictive as the Fed has assumed. With market optimism running high, a pause in December is likely the prudent choice, even if it’s not ideal for real estate. However, the worst-case scenario would be another Fed pivot leading to a rate hike, potentially destabilizing markets further.

Outlook for Real Estate

Despite higher rates, there’s a silver lining for residential real estate. Private banks are offering competitive rates and sacrificing margins to attract business. Additionally, non-QM products are priced favorably compared to traditional A-paper loans, providing flexibility for borrowers eager to buy or refinance without being penalized.

We are also seeing an uptick in our commercial borrowers seeking floating-rate loans in the hope that rates will slowly decrease, at which point they could lock in a longer-term loan. As short-term rates are priced off of either short-term Treasuries or SOFR, these rates have seen a nice reduction.

Market Commentary 11/01/2024

victoria chuidian
November 1, 2024

Bonds Yields Rise As Markets Brace for Election & Fed Meeting

Interest rates are on the rise as a weak Jobs report showed the addition of only 12,000 new jobs. Bond traders reacted unexpectedly to the news, with the market’s focus shifting to the growing U.S. deficit and the risk of persistent inflation. Of particular concern is the fact that neither presidential candidate has presented a plan to address the deficit, while the bond market appears to be signaling disapproval of continued government spending. With long-term Treasury yields rising since the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September, we’re closely watching the 2-year Treasury as a proxy for next week’s Fed meeting. While a 25 basis point cut is anticipated, some experts suggest a pause might be more prudent, given the recent upward trend in rates and mixed economic signals

There’s an argument that current interest rates aren’t overly restrictive despite numerous factors like steady GDP growth, improved consumer confidence, a strong stock market, speculative crypto activity, tight underwriting, narrow bond spreads, and persistent wage inflation. For many individuals and businesses that secured historically low rates, recent rate fluctuations have had minimal impact. Additionally, with money market yields near 5% and rising housing and equity values, higher inflation may benefit wealthier Americans.

There may be an additional silver lining for real estate professionals. Many homeowners have held onto properties longer than planned, and home builders are running out of incentive options. If rates stabilize, home prices may need to adjust downward, which could entice prospective buyers off the sidelines.