Tag: low rates

Market Commentary 5/12/2023

Posted on by Admin

Inflation and Slowing Economy Weighs Heavy on Consumer Confidence

The results of Friday’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (UMCSENT) were lower than expected, emphasizing the impact of inflation and a slowing economy on consumer confidence. UMCSENT holds significance as it provides insight into the current sentiment of consumers, and the reading was not favorable. As we have previously mentioned, we believe that tackling inflation is always challenging. Although we anticipate short-term interest rates are approaching their peak, interest rates are not likely to decline as rapidly as some may hope. The Federal Reserve made a critical mistake by allowing inflation to exceed 9%. As a result, they will have to exercise caution in reducing interest rates until there is clear evidence that inflation has been effectively addressed.

In terms of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), overall inflation is showing signs of abatement. Regardless, super-core inflation ( which the Fed closely monitors) remains elevated. The Fed is prepared to accept a rise in unemployment and sustain potential market repercussions to bring down inflation. This strategy hinges on the recognition that inflation disproportionately affects the most vulnerable individuals. Additionally, it is important to consider that other factors continue to exert pressure on the prices of goods and services; like the post-Covid uncertainties in global supply chains and the absence of cheap labor from China. 

Housing Supply, Consumer Sentiment, and Lending Sources

The surge in interest rates has prompted a decline in existing home sales. Borrowers looking to upsize or downsize their homes are hesitant to give up their mortgage rates of around 3% in exchange for new rates of 5% to 6% or higher. This trend has contributed to the rise in stock prices of new home builders. The housing market remains constrained, particularly in larger cities, due to limited supply.

There are concerns surrounding regional banks as deposits flee and smaller banks face  balance sheet challenges. Stronger banks are positioned to acquire weaker ones. While these mini-regional bank crises are not systemic, they are creating a tighter lending environment. Many of these banks were involved in services like commercial office space as well as provided financing options for non-institutional sponsors, construction, and other specialized loans that larger money center banks often refused. We expect to witness further episodes of bank-related issues in the coming months.

At Insignia Mortgage, we are navigating this environment proactively. Our team of professional loan brokers has identified several interesting lending options, including credit unions, boutique banks, and larger private banks that offer excellent terms for the right clients. Here are some highlights:

  • Loans up to $4MM with loan-to-values up to 80%
  • Interest-only products available for high net worth borrowers up to $20 million
  • Bank statement loan programs up to $7.5MM with rates in the low 7s
  • Financing options with as low as 5% down payment for loans up to $1.5MM and 10% down payment for loans up to $2MM
  • Foreign national loans ranging from $2MM to $30MM

We remain committed to finding innovative solutions and serving our clients with exceptional lending opportunities amidst this challenging market landscape.

Market Commentary 1/20/23

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Job Loss & Poor Housing Data Drive Mortgage Rates Lower

It is becoming increasingly difficult to argue that the economy is not slowing. Several major public companies, including Microsoft and Google, have announced layoffs. Now, most economists ally with the recession camp. Retail sales were very poor, existing housing sales are at a 13-year-low, the yield curve is extremely inverted, and long bonds are falling. Nonetheless, the Fed is resolute in raising short-term interest rates to eliminate inflation. Why, with so much negative sentiment, is the Fed dead set on doing this?  The answer lies in what the Fed is seeing in the job market and persistent wage growth. A survey of regional Fed data supports the notion that although wages are moderating, many parts of the job market remain tight and wage pressure has yet to soften. As wages constitute a large chunk of any company’s expenses, higher wages lead to higher prices, assuming the business can pass along those prices. 

Looking at the history of the economy, the Fed has at times, been truly unsuccessful in pushing down inflation. For example, the grim inflation episodes of the late 1970s and early 1980s led to several rate increases and declines. As a result, the Fed had to resort to very high short-term interest rates to finally quell inflation. We suspect that the Fed Chairman does not want to be remembered for failing to get the job done on inflation. He would rather see equity and real estate prices come down than risk a re-acceleration of inflation.

Even with the Fed’s rate hikes, and jaw-boning the markets constantly, financial conditions have eased since late last year. The 10-year Treasury is south of 3.500%, mortgage rates have dipped, and global equities have rallied. This is not what the Fed wants. Therefore, the Fed will be raising short-term rates yet again in early February. Odds are for a .25 bp increase, but don’t count out another .50 bp as their terminal rate target is above 5.00% (Fed Funds are currently at 4.25% -4.50%)

Distress in commercial real estate is starting to make it closer to the front page. There are about $175 billion in troubled loans globally, many of which are coming due later in 2023 and 2024 with the focus being on the office. Some residential areas like Austin and Boise experienced massive price appreciation during the pandemic and are now seeing prices come down. However, strong coastal market prices are holding steady. This is due to the combination of both a robust and diversified economy with low levels of inventory serving as a floor to steep declines. Mortgage rates have drifted lower. Lenders are now thinking about 2023 production goals on how to make loan requests work, especially on the portfolio bank side of the business. This is a welcome development and will certainly help the local real estate market.

Market Commentary 12/17/21

Posted on by Admin

Yields Fall Surprisingly Lower As Fed Acknowledges Inflation Is No Longer Transitory

It was a very interesting week for the equity and bond markets. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, finally acknowledged inflation is running hotter than Fed models expected. As employment gains move the U.S. closer to full employment and with inflation running at levels not seen in decades, the Fed simultaneously agreed to start tapering mortgage bonds and Treasury purchases, also known as QE. The Fed also expects to raise short-term rates starting the middle of next year. The Fed Chair stated that if the new Omicron variant creates havoc on the economy, the policy would be subject to change. Long bond yields fell on this news as equities moved higher, anathema to what one would expect on the idea that the Fed would become less accommodative. However, equities ended the week on a low note, and tech was hit particularly hard. The more interesting observation is to understand why long bond yielding is moving lower and why the yield curve flattening. The thought is that bond traders are sensing that a slowing economy is in front of us; possibly a recession. A flattening yield curve must be watched carefully and is now a key indicator used by many economists for guidance as to the health of the global economic recovery. 

We have spoken ad nauseam about inflation not being transitory and we are now being proved correct on this belief. Hard assets such as real estate have long been prized during inflationary periods. That being said, real estate should remain a great hedge against inflation. In addition, low mortgage rates amidst surging inflation is a never-before-seen phenomenon, so while valuations are high, payments remain low. The appeal of paying fixed payment debts with inflating wages creates positive arbitrage and more disposable income as borrowers and businesses continue to lock in low monthly interest expenses.

Why might rates not move up much? The biggest reason is Uncle Sam’s balance sheet is so massive that a rapid rise in rates will create a payment burden. Furthermore, rapidly rising interest rates would put additional stress on the equities market and hurt consumer spending should stock portfolios drop steeply.  No one has a crystal ball, but a mild rise in rates over the coming year seems likely with the 10 year Treasury leveling off around 2.00% to 2.25%, especially if economic activity slows.

Market Commentary 11/19/21

Posted on by Admin

Renewed COVID-related lockdowns in Europe are providing a tailwind for U.S. bonds as equities are trading down in the news. Further supporting lower bond yields is poor consumer sentiment and a weak Labor Participation Rate.  With 70% of the U.S. economy driven by consumption, there is a growing feeling that the economy may have peaked.  With winter approaching and COVID cases rising in Europe and in parts of the U.S., the Fed may not need to raise short-term rates as we previously believed. It is important to remember that the markets are dynamic and that the pandemic can quickly change sentiment, economic output, and overall confidence by consumers and business owners.

The counterargument for higher yields is that the COVID-related supply disruptions and behavioral changes have created rampant inflation with too much demand chasing limited goods.  Fiscal and monetary stimulus are just exacerbating the issue as more money floods into the system, costs of goods and devices will keep going up. Inflation is a problem for many working-class Americans as food, gas, and shelter costs have risen. Next week the Fed’s favorite reading on inflation, core PCE, will be released and closely read by bond traders and economists. 

It would be wise to take advantage of this dip in interest rates. With inflation running well above 4%, locking in a rate lower than inflation is a great example of positive leverage while locking in a real negative rate. 

Market Commentary 10/15/21

Posted on by Admin

Banks kicked off earning season with the major banks reporting positive growth, inspiring the equity markets to move higher. Although inflation is becoming a bigger concern, the market has momentarily put those worries to the side. Interest rates have drifted lower, which is perplexing, as the cost of all goods (food, gas, rent, materials) show no signs of lowering. Supply chains and lack of available workers are delaying the delivery of goods and also increasing costs. Companies are having to pay up for workers and there is some worry that the Fed is being pushed into a corner it will not easily be able to get out of unless it restricts monetary policy in a way that could upset markets. Should the bond market change its feeling about inflation, interest rates will move up quickly. One cannot underestimate the Fed’s ability to buy up the market, impose interest curve controls or other measures to contain interest rate volatility. However, while Fed policy is effective in creating demand, very low rates may actually be creating more demand than the supply side can handle. With no lack of demand in the U.S. for goods and with 11 million job openings, one has to wonder if we have reached the limits of what monetary policy is capable of. There seems to be more money chasing fewer goods (think autos, homes, washing machines, etc) and an increased threat of structural inflation.

China’s property market is of some concern as several trillion dollars of real estate corporate debt are at risk. Most don’t think what is happening in China will have a negative impact on the U.S., but some worry is warranted given the size of the Chinese property market, the size of the leverage, and the unforeseen risks associated with a drawdown on the largest property market in the world may have on the global economy.  

Some parts of the U.S. are starting to see a slowdown in home sales. Interest rates are still cheap so that is definitely a major factor for those who are actively looking to buy a new home. The rise in home prices has been dramatic over the last 18 months, and while there is concern about a market top, ultra-low interest rates have kept affordability at reasonable levels. Also, real estate has served as an excellent hedge against inflation historically with investment properties offering some excellent tax write-offs that help to lower ordinary income. One of many reasons that make California the leading residential real estate market is the diversity of businesses within the state. While an expensive state to operate in, it provides many entrepreneurs with such great opportunities. This is reflected in the housing market and many of the mega-homes sales that we read about weekly. Insignia Mortgage is honored to be part of many of these large sales as our expertise in structuring complex loans is a perfect fit in this type of market.

05_29_2020_blog

Market Commentary 5/29/20

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Core inflation is non-existent in the U.S. and for the moment presents no challenges to the Fed.There’s a massive stimulus being pushed out to the debt and equity markets as well as to Main street in response to Covid-19’s biologic shock translating into an economic one.

On Friday, Fed chair Powell reiterated a by-any-means-necessary attitude to support the economy in the event of the second wave of virus-related economic setbacks. Later in the day, the equity markets responded with relief to President Trump leaving the U.S.-China trade deal untouched.

Mortgage rates have remained flat even after Core PCE fell to less than 1%. While we believe mortgage rates will move lower later in the year, we still believe that banks are keeping interest rates padded above their corresponding benchmark U.S. treasury yields while simultaneously keeping an eye out for easing loan deferments and reduced unemployment. 

Americans’ savings continue to increase due to a combination of government assistance and sheltering in place. Evidence is mounting that consumption will rebound as life begins to return to normal. Traffic to websites such as Zillow has surged as prospective home buyers are researching potential new homes. Also, the stay-at-home orders have prompted people to re-evaluate their current housing situations. As a result, many families are deciding that it is time to look for a new home or upgrade their current home. 

In closing, Insignia Mortgage’s brokers are encouraged by the increase of purchase activity in the last few weeks. The coronavirus situation has temporarily stalled action in the real estate market, boosting supply. Buyers are definitely taking advantage of this situation and benefitting from historically low mortgage rates, which make housing payments very manageable.

03_07_2020_blog

Market Commentary 3/6/20

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Coronavirus fears have driven interest rates across the developed world to historic lows. Equity markets have reacted violently to the uncertainty around how this new disease may disrupt global supply chains and affect overall economic activity. 

In response to these concerns, the Federal Reserve stepped in earlier this week with an emergency 50 basis point rate cut. This cut was an attempt to promote confidence throughout the financial system and push down short-term interest rates, which will help corporations and individuals attain lower-cost financing.  

There is no way of knowing what affects this virus will have on the globally interconnected economy and if it will send the world into a recession. What we do know is that it will eventually run its course and that disruption will stop once our scientific community develops remedies to combat the virus. It is important to note while the virus is very contagious, it does not appear to be extremely deadly for most healthy individuals. As a result, travel and leisure businesses will be hit hardest should the virus spread. On the other hand, the U.S. service economy (70% of the U.S. economy) is derived from service) may adjust better than currently being forecasted in the equities market given all the technology tools that permit employees to work remotely. 

In other news, the February jobs report was a good one with a better than expected job creation number, while unemployment remained at 3.500%. However, even a good jobs report didn’t matter as the equity markets shrugged off the good news. 

Government-guaranteed interest rates have touched levels most of us believed we would never witness unless we were in a full-on depression.  The 10-year Treasury ended the week at .78%, which is remarkable, but also a bit scary. While banks lowered interest rates, it is important to note that as rates approach zero, it becomes increasingly difficult for banks to earn a net margin. The result is that mortgage rates remain higher than what some customers believe mortgages should be priced at. Should interest rates remain low, we would expect mortgage rates to continue to slide lower. However, we do expect that rates will move up once a clearer picture on the coronavirus emerges. It is our belief that rates will remain low for quite some time.

02_21_2020_blog

Market Commentary 2/21/20

Posted on by Damon Germanides

The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond hit an all-time low on Friday as investors fled riskier assets and sought the safe haven of U.S. government-guaranteed debt. The causes for concern were weak overseas manufacturing data and ongoing uncertainty in handicapping how the coronavirus (now named “COVID-19”) will affect economic growth in the coming months. Should this virus become more of a problem, interest rates will plunge. For now, no one knows how this virus will evolve, but to date, it appears to not be as deadly as biologically similar infections.

Earlier in the week, bond yields held firm even after hotter than expected PPI and Core PPI inflation readings.   

Home buying season should be a good one with interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future. Supply and affordability will be the bigger issue, especially in the more expensive coastal markets. Building permits surged but housing starts fell which should put even more pressure on short term supply concerns. 

With rates near historic all-time lows, we continue to believe that locking-in is the right course of action. The wild card is the potential threat that the coronavirus will have on global productivity. For now, that risk is low, but it may change. If the virus becomes an international pandemic, expect the U.S. 10-year Treasury to touch 1% or lower.  

02_07_2020_blog

Market Commentary 2/7/20

Posted on by Damon Germanides

A strong January jobs report reinforced the strength of the domestic economy. However, after a 4-day surge by equities earlier in the week, stocks sold off Friday and bond yields pushed lower. On Friday, bonds took comfort from muted wage inflation and U.S. equities sold off as a response to renewed fears of a coronavirus pandemic still low, but hard to handicap. Equities rallied earlier in the week in response to stronger than expected manufacturing and service sector reports. 

The January jobs report was impressive with 225,000 jobs created versus 164,000 expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%, but for good reason, as more people entered the workforce. The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rose to 63.4%, the highest since 2013. Wage inflation rose month over month, but less than some experts expected given the tight labor market. Bonds rallied (yields moved lower) as wage and overall inflation remain persistently low. 

Keep an eye on China and the coronavirus as unknown risks remain but for the moment appear to be contained. How this virus will affect global growth is yet to be determined, but handicapping this virus is nearly impossible and risk-on/risk-off trading could changes daily as more cases are discovered worldwide, and as scientists gain a deeper understanding of the virus.

Homebuilders remain optimistic and with unprecedented wealth creation in the U.S., this year’s home-buying season is shaping up to be a good one. Affordability and availability of home supply are top concerns. Mortgage rates are compelling and we continue to advise prospective borrowers to consider locking-in interest rates at these historically low levels.

01_31_2020_blog

Market Commentary 1/31/20

Posted on by Damon Germanides

The coronavirus fears continue to weigh on the global financial markets after having been declared a global health crisis. For the moment, this has pushed yields lower in the U.S. and slammed equities. We are keeping tabs on how this outbreak plays out and how it may affect global economic growth. 

The bull case for equities and real estate acquisitions is supported by low unemployment and low inflation, a dovish Federal Reserve, and a vibrant consumer. The bear case for equities and predictions of an economic slowdown are spurred by uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus, mixed corporate earnings, and softening manufacturing data. Fears of recession remain remote but keep an eye on short-term rates which inverted the other day.

With respect to mortgage rates, we are back to near historically low-interest rates. It remains very hard to argue against locking-in rates at these levels, but rates could potentially drop further if the world comes to a halt while international health officials try to contain the spread of this new virus. However, we remain biased toward locking-in interest rates at these ultra-low levels.