Tag: interest rates

Market Commentary 3/25/22

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Flattening Yield Curve Worrisome As Economic Growth Slows

I feel as if I have seen this movie before. With that thought in mind, the idea that this time may be different is what makes previous patterns in markets hard to handicap.  But, make no mistake, a flattening yield curve is a worrisome sign. This is especially concerning, given how hot inflation is currently running and where low-interest rates are at present.  The bond market had a terrible week as 30-year mortgage rates hit near 5.000%, which is a dramatic increase from the 3.25% or so rates were at the beginning of the year. I also find it strange that the equity markets are surging on a week when bond yields have risen to levels not seen in several years. The erratic behavior of the market is one reason why it’s so difficult to both predict the future or place big investment bets in one direction or the other. Even when all signs point to an outcome, that outcome may not happen.   

Take housing as an example. Given the lack of housing supply, the way in which rates will affect housing demand remains uncertain. I do expect sales to slow as the combination of very high inflation and much higher mortgage rates are not favorable. Yet, at the moment, many real estate brokers remain very busy and our office has a near-record amount of purchase volume.   

One of the great joys of my job is speaking to so many people each and every week. One client who is in the online retail business informed me that as soon as gas hit $6 per gallon, the business fell off a cliff.  Disposable income is getting eaten up by life’s necessities in a way unseen in over 40 years. Gas prices, food, rent, you name it, and the price is higher.  There is much talk of the strong possibility of a 9%-10% CPI print.  Should this happen, the Fed will need to act quickly and strongly with at least a .50 bp increase in rates and perhaps even do so sooner than their next meeting.  Inflation is beginning to erode economic growth. Bond guru, Jeffrey Gundlach, said recently that he is on recession watch. He looks at the 2-10 and 5-10 Treasury spread as one of his main predictors of a recession. Should both of these spreads go negative from very flat, he fully expects a recession.  A steepening yield curve will give the all-clear. 

Now for the positives. One, real estate has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation. This means that should the markets swoon, investors may want the security of a hard asset such as real estate. Two, a more downbeat mood opens the door to better negotiations between buyers and sellers.  As the market normalizes, there is a chance there will be more homes for sale or that sellers will be willing to work with potential buyers in ways that have not been seen over the last two years. Finally, rates are still attractive from a historical perspective (real rates are deeply are negative when measured against inflation), especially adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).  While it seems likely the 30+ year bull market in interest rates has been broken, let’s not forget the 10 year Treasury is still only at 2.48%. 

Market Commentary 3/18/2022

Posted on by Admin

Inflation Is Real As Fed’s Hawkish Signals End Of Ultra-Low Interest Rates

Inflation is real. Consumers are getting hit at the pump, in the grocery store, and beyond.  Don’t be fooled, inflation will not magically go away any time soon. The reality is that the Ukrainian-Russian war will keep oil high as well as, some other key commodities. China and South Korea are in lock-down due to a surge in cases that will add more disruption to the global supply chain. Pile on the other disruptions over the last year and it seems virtually impossible that inflation will cool anytime soon. The Fed will continue to act as it has moved its focus from Wall Street to Main Street. With employment next to full and inflation anywhere from 5% – 8% (and probably going higher), there is a minimal political will to keep interest rates low. Although equity and real estate investors love low-interest rates, Fed inaction has caused inflation to become embedded in the economy. As a result, inflation will be harder to tame. I was happy to hear the Fed admit some error with inflation and offer a stance on rate hikes and balance sheet tightening.  The old saying of “don’t fight the Fed” applies not only when interest rates fall, but also when those same rates rise. Be careful of more volatile markets as the Fed raises rates and all investments become re-rated based on higher discount rates. This will lower the present value of all investments.

Mortgage rates are up dramatically. The 30 year fixed rate touched a low of about 2.500% during the pandemic. That same rate is now near 4.000%, which is a 60% rise. This impacts the demand for housing and the pool of available refinances. The one wild card is the low level of new and existing inventory (which I have spoken about) as a natural floor to prices dropping by much, even in the face of higher interest rates.  Nonetheless, higher rates will hurt economic growth as everything from home loans, to corporate, auto, and personal loans will come with higher interest rates.  This will limit the amount of money available to consumers to buy other goods and services. Luckily, our office is still seeing strong demand for purchase money loans, a sign that the higher rates have not cooled the market just yet.  We are witnessing savvy buyers negotiate better prices. 

The overall global market remains very hard to handicap. There remain several headwinds that could create a “flight to quality” scenario into U.S. Treasuries including escalation by Putin, a new variant of COVID, or shutdowns in China and throughout Asia. This could further complicate Treasury yields.  The world is also experiencing geopolitical tensions at a level not seen since the Cold War. I am keeping an eye on the flattening yield curve as a recessionary signal, as well as the VIX index as a sign of bullish/bearish sentiment as the equity markets work through varying degrees of concern. I will also be monitoring consumer sentiment and housing demand in the coming months. 

Market Commentary 3/11/22

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Spreads Widen On Mortgages As Inflation & War Weigh Down On Markets

The global economy remains on edge with the war in Europe and surging inflation. Many of us are worried about the state of the world, our savings, and the cost of living; especially after two years in a pandemic. Consumers are very concerned about the rising costs of food, gas, as well as other goods and services. Too many headwinds remain to write with any conviction about where the economy or the markets are headed. It certainly feels eerie, but may encourage some greater risk-taking for those who can stomach the volatility. Fearful times usually present opportunities. However, no one can say for certain if this time will be different. 

I remain of the mindset to look for good quality investments which require digging into financial statements and determining if the business has an investible moat around it and a good balance sheet. The meme stocks have been crushed and unfortunately many people have learned the hard way how challenging investing can be. The same thought process applies to buying real estate when volatility picks up and sentiment sinks. The combination of more fear and higher interest rates should be a tailwind for new buyers. Also, with no more easy money being made perhaps buyers will be less excited about bidding up houses. However, the limited supply of homes in big cities such as Los Angeles will provide a floor to prices. This will keep home valuations steady even as the major U.S. indices flirt with bear market drawdowns. 

Interest rates should go higher near term. Regardless, the flattening yield curve must be watched closely and could limit how tight Fed policy may become. Recession talk has picked up as of late. High commodity and food prices along with ongoing supply chain issues do not bode well for GDP growth.  Consumer confidence, the best form of stimulus there is (when we feel good about the world we spend more) has languished. The war in Ukraine touches many emotional nerves and should keep consumer confidence low until it ends (hopefully soon).  Put all of this together, on top of our massive deficit, and it makes one wonder how far the Fed will be able to go with rate increases.

Market Commentary 2/25/22

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Russian Invasion Slows Pace Of Fed Tightening Plan

The Russian invasion into Ukraine sent global markets on a wild ride with globally traded public securities, bonds, commodities, and crypto trading.  Wednesday evening was a sad day as I witnessed the first invasion of Europe in my lifetime.  The last few years have certainly been challenging for everyone due to the pandemic. The destabilization of a European country will continue to create additional known and unknown risks throughout the world at a very delicate time. While our economy is doing well overall, it is also slowing as inflation inhibits consumer spending ability. The Russian invasion of Ukraine will add more pressure to food and oil prices. While we hope sanctions move Putin to negotiate, he is simply unpredictable.    

The U.S. being the safe haven in the world witnessed a quick drawdown on equities this Thursday morning, which turned into “a rip your face off” type of rally. The old trader’s adage of “buy on the sound of cannons” certainly played out.  Bond yields sank but then reversed higher and gold and silver traded down as well, which I found to be curious.  The reason bonds yields rose is due to unprecedented global inflation.  Ultimately, the bond markets quickly overcame their concern about what Putin may do to Ukraine and beyond.  Personally, I believe we have yet to see the worst of Putin’s intentions. There could be very troubling days ahead in the market.  Make no mistake, China is watching all of this very closely, as its own ambitions to take control of Taiwan cannot be forgotten. Additionally, the relationship between Russia and China has been growing more established over the last few years.

As the world has become more dangerous overnight, real estate should benefit as a less volatile asset to own.  Good solid real estate holding at a reasonable price will continue to be sought after.  Also, as many investors have had a great run in the equity portfolios, I am hearing anecdotally from several financial advisors that those investors with big gains are looking to cash out their winnings for either a new home or a cash flow producing property. 

The demand for U.S. bonds during more unstable periods should keep a lid on high bonds as yields may go. However, as inflation is running at the hottest rate in over 40 years, rates will need to rise (but probably not as much prior to the conflict).  This will be good for tech stocks who were very worried about the 10 year Treasury quickly moving north of 2.500%. While rates can move higher over time, the pace will be more gradual now.  Borrowers should take note that there is still time to lock in favorable interest rates. This opportunity could quickly change if there is a pullback by Russia over Ukraine. For the moment, this seems unlikely, but still cannot be totally discounted.   

Market Commentary 2/18/22

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Yields Dip As Ukraine & Fed Policy Weigh Down On Market

Ukraine-Russia tensions, inflation worries, a more restrictive Fed, and a slowing economy weighed heavily on the equity markets this week. Bond yields surged and fell in very volatile trading, while credit spreads widened. These are all signs that the economy may be headed for tougher times. Although the Ukrainian conflict is scary, the bigger concern is the expectation of rising interest rates that affect consumer confidence, with the calculus on discounting long-duration equities (think unprofitable tech) and housing.  While housing now has a natural floor due to such limited supply, other asset classes such as tech have been crushed by changing opinions on risk.  As the stock market is viewed as a store of wealth, consumer spending could be discouraged if equity losses continue to mount.

It seems as if the Fed has lost control of inflation as members of the FOMC appear on television to express their ideas on how inflation should be tackled.  Aggressive rate-hiking has been discussed and has played a big role in increased volatility in global markets. There is now talk amongst analysts of up to 7 hikes next year.  This may be too aggressive, especially as the equity market cools off.  However, the more conservative estimate of 5 hikes seems more likely. The increasingly important bond market has not been watched very closely over the last two years, due to the ultra-accommodative Fed policy.  The 10-year Treasury yield, as well as the slope of the yield curve, are now being closely watched. The flatter the yield curve, the less of a possibility of additional rate hikes.

Mortgage rates are very volatile and Insignia Mortgage team members have a big advantage over bank loan officers at the moment. Our mortgage brokers have access to many different products and lenders. Our community-based banks and credit unions are holding the line on interest rates as they are focused on keeping production volume healthy rather than raising interest rates. 

Market Commentary 2/11/22

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Stocks Slammed As Fed Set To Raise Rates In March

Stocks were slammed yesterday with a hotter than expected CPI report. Another contributing factor is the comment by a Federal Reserve board member on the need for more rapid increases in short-term interest rates as well as a pickup in the pace of quantitative tightening. However, a Bloomberg report late in the day asserted the Fed is not going to rush to raise rates. The President of the ECB has also talked down rapid rate hikes which calmed markets (for the moment). Expect this type of back-and-forth rhetoric as the Fed weighs how best to raise interest rates without creating an economic slowdown. This will not be an easy task. 

The consumer confidence index was lower, which supports the notion of measured hikes over rapid ones. Confidence can work both as a stimulant and depressant, so fading confidence should assist in easing inflation in the next few months.  The old saying may apply here that “the cure for high prices is high prices.” Should confidence move lower, both consumers and businesses will be less eager to spend money on goods and services. It may take some time for inflation to subside and with the highest readings in 40 years. The Fed is being forced to act on inflation; especially after getting it so wrong a few months earlier. 

The 10-year Treasury is now over 2.000%.  The same financial pundits who, a short time ago, said we would never see Treasury bonds at this level (something we have been mindful of for some time) have now expressed those rates may go much higher.  From a technical standpoint, it is important to watch yields as should the 10-year Treasury bond approach 2.150%. Rates could go much higher.  Also, be mindful of the yield curve and what it is forecasting. A flattening yield curve supports an economic slowdown whereas a sloping yield curve means the Fed is getting it right on tightening. 

Insignia Mortgage has very aggressive jumbo interest rates. The lenders we work with are holding the line on raising interest rates. There is a limit to how long these institutions are willing to hold interest rates. It is now time for those on the fence to apply for a mortgage- as rates are much more likely to go up than go down in the near term. It is important to remember the Fed has played a big role in keeping interest rates artificially low and that policy is now reversing. 

Note: Commentary was written prior to increased concerns on Ukraine-Russia conflict which sent bond yields lower

Market Commentary 2/4/22

Posted on by Admin

Yields Spike On Blow Out Jobs Number 

The Jobs picture proved to be better than expected as November and December payroll data was revised up by a total of 709,000 jobs. The January employment report gain of 467,000 caught many forecasters off-guard. Most believed the combination of the Omicron variant, reduction in seasonal holiday jobs, and decreased travel spending, would prevent such a robust report.  More importantly, bonds spiked due to the better expected report and the increase in average hourly earnings, which rose .7%, above the .5% expected (remember wage inflation is sticky). The January Jobs Report has all but cemented a March lift-off in short-term interest rates.  A 50 BPS point rate increase can no longer be discounted as the labor market is tighter than expected and inflation is proving to be harder to tame.   

Across the pond is the same story as inflation is smashing records.  The Bank of England raised overnight lending rates and the ECB had to walk back dovish commentary on rate increases as fears of inflation threaten to become embedded within their economy.  Rising global rates will put pressure on the U.S. to act as well.  It can be argued that various central bankers waited too long to raise rates and are now embarking on a rate increase path while the global economic recovery is showing signs of possible slowing. A mixed bag of earnings is providing no clear sign of where the economy is headed.  Common themes in earnings reports relate to ongoing issues with inflationary pressures and supply chains. How much cost companies can pass on to consumers will decide which industries do well and which are hit hard in the coming months.  Oil is now above 90 per barrel. Food and basic goods have all increased in price. If this continues it will hit the economy as consumers’ pocketbooks are getting stretched.     

Volatility in both equities and bonds is expected to continue with the Fed’s focus more on main street instead of Wall Street.  How far markets would have to slide for the so-called Fed to be activated is anyone’s guess. However, with 40% of Americans uninvested in the stock market and really feeling the pinch of inflation and two years of lockdowns due to Covid, the Fed will let markets fall as they beat down inflation. A volatile equity market may be a good thing for real estate purchases as it will provide a more level playing field for buyers and sellers. Rising rates, which are still very low but not in the extraordinarily low bucket any longer, will also keep real estate values from ascending at the recent clip. Keeping home affordability sustainable will be key to the housing market going forward.  For those on the fence and worried about monthly mortgage payments, now is time to move as rates seem headed about 2.000% on the 10-Year Treasury note. Careful attention must now be placed on the 2-10 Treasury spread as it flattens. This could be a sign of tougher times if this relationship is compressed further.  Also, Fed speak in the coming weeks will be watched closely. The markets are fragile and a misstep by the Fed could create increased volatility and large price swings in bonds and equities.  

Market Commentary 1/7/22

Posted on by Admin

Fed Signals Rates Will Rise In 2022 With Inflation Running At 30 Year Highs

It has been a forgettable start to 2022 for the U.S. financial markets, and more specifically, for many tech companies and bond investors. While the last several weeks of 2021 were quite volatile, Wednesday’s hawkish release of the Fed minutes crushed many stocks and also shook the bond market.

Inflation is now a major concern for the Fed. Friday’s Job Report, which contained both positive and negative elements about the employment picture, reinforces the belief that the U.S. economy is near full employment. The current unemployment rate stands at 3.90% with many million job openings still remaining. Wages continue to increase running above many expectations, but, these wage increases are not keeping pace with consumer inflation and this is what the Fed is worried about.

Housing demand remains robust. Should interest rates continue to rise, housing demand and housing affordability will be impacted. However, with the housing supply still too low, housing demand should not dip too much. Lumber will be important to watch as it has quietly gone back up to a 7-month-high. Increased labor costs for construction workers are also a concern along with supply chain issues. Higher rates will force builders to work on keeping costs down on new home builds. It is too early to tell what could happen but homebuilder stocks have not traded well to start the year even as demand is strong.

Another hot CPI report is expected for December, which is due out next week.  While the market is already pricing in the likelihood of ongoing inflation, interest rates will be under continued pressure as both PPI and CPI inflation readings run at 30-year highs. We don’t recommend sitting around waiting for interest rates to abate or the Fed to pump large-scale stimulus into the economy in response to the Omicron outbreak.  Borrowers who have not taken advantage of the ultra-low rate environment still have some time to lock in very attractive interest rates. For those borrowers with complex financials, Insignia Mortgage has several local banks and credit unions willing to work closely with us to approve loans that larger institutions simply won’t take the time to underwrite. Interest-only products are abundant, as are mortgages for second homes and investment properties.

Market Commentary 10/29/21

Posted on by Admin

The upcoming weeks are developing into an interesting time for the financial markets. While the argument can be made that all things are transitory, the Fed’s definition of transitory has been a few months. Core inflation is at a thirty-year high with no sign of abatement. Inflation appears likely to linger. Many of America’s best companies have commented about the supply chain and labor shortages. Numerous companies are offering several thousand dollars in signing bonuses to entry-level employees just to attract new hires. Other companies are addressing the employee shortage by finding their own logistics solutions to get goods to their customers. 

Rising inflation is just not a U.S. issue. As the world recovers from the shock and reopening of COVID, the global supply chain has been broken. Some countries have seen enough of rising prices. The combination of surging demand with easy monetary and fiscal policy has created a massive amount of money in the global financial system. 

To combat run-away inflation, some foreign central banks have begun raising short-term interest rates. It is not believed the U.S. is ready to raise interest rates, but the Fed has been signaling its intention of slowing the pace of purchases of bonds and mortgage-backed securities, a measure known as Quantitative Easing.  By signaling the market of this intention, the Fed is hopeful the markets will take the news in stride. So far, so good. But there is no doubt that policymakers will be monitoring the markets very closely should the taper become official.

The Biden infrastructure, social welfare, and taxation plan are still not a done deal. Odds are that the plans will be implemented. There has not been enough time to adequately review the policy and how it might affect the U.S. financial and real estate markets.  However, as we have opined previously, we don’t like the idea of increased taxes on capital gains on investments, especially if not inflation-adjusted. If taxes are raised too high on speculative investments, the desire to take risks will diminish. 

The bond market remains sanguine on inflation but the yield curve has begun to flatten as future rate hikes seem more likely. As a result, slowed economic growth is probable. Remember, the Fed can control the short end of the curve but not the long end of the curve (unless the Fed implements yield curve control). Many banks price corporate bonds off of the 5-year Treasury so as this yield rises, so will corporate interest expense.  With mortgage rates drifting higher, loan volume has slowed. This should come as no surprise. Alternative mortgage products are leading the charge for many of Insignia Mortgage’s clients. Many new home buyers and refinance applicants are not bankable with traditional lenders as many applicants have opaque financial structures. This segment of applicants tends to have hard to understand income, be from a foreign country, or are quite substantial from an asset standpoint. Real estate has been a great hedge against inflation historically. The combination of low-interest rates and rising real estate values continue to keep transaction activity high.

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Market Commentary 7/23/21

Posted on by Damon Germanides

Bond Markets Await Big Inflation Reading Next Week

Equity markets started the week with a big downdraft but have rebounded to new highs. Bonds dipped and then rebounded. This all supports the notion that we should expect to see more volatility in the coming months. While equity markets appear fully priced, the bond market’s paltry yields will continue to support riskier behavior. This will bode well for equities and alternative assets including real estate and private equity.  

Central banks continue to reinforce low rates for longer as the Delta variant spreads and creates more uncertainty about the pandemic and how it will affect the reopening of the world’s economy. 

Next week will be an important one as the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator, the core PCE, reports for June. Inflation is front-page news and the debates are ongoing about whether inflation is transitory or sticky. It will be interesting to see the responses from both sides on the current state of inflation. Bond yields will be on edge as it awaits this critical report. 

Mortgage rates have held up well during this time. While it is hard to argue for lower interest rates as the economy improves, the Delta variant has increased the risk of a market setback which has helped keep interest rates low.