Market Commentary 5/19/17

For the first time in quite some time, U.S. bond and equity markets showed increased volatility on the heels of President Trump’s firing of FBI Director Comey. In tandem with that, there was increased turbulence in the White House surrounding allegations of possible Trump-Russia collusion, though no hard evidence has surfaced as of yet. Investors seem less concerned with the potential conflicts with Syria and North Korea. There is a lack of certainty over the Trump administration’s ability to pass promised pro-growth tax reform. Trump’s unorthodox style came to a head on Wednesday, which saw a massive rally in bond yields and also a violent sell-off in stocks due to the aforementioned concerns. The markets traded better on Friday as this market has proven to have a short memory.

Overall, U.S. earnings were strong for the first quarter, and ultimately the stock market trades on earnings and earnings growth. The one question on everyone’s mind is how the stock market will react to the Trump administration’s actions on policies on tax cuts, deregulation, and infrastructure spending. The success or failure of tax reform will have big consequences later in the year with respect to interest rates.

With the 10-year Treasury note closing below 2.25%, we remain biased toward floating rates. We are closely watching support (2.16%) and resistance (2.61%) on the 10-year note. Breaking below or above these levels could mean much lower or much higher interest rates. For the moment, we are delighted for the positive week and better pricing for our borrowers with the drop in interest rates.