Market Commentary 11/15/19

The Goldilocks environment helping to fuel the rise in U.S. equities remains intact. Encouraged by an accommodative and responsive Fed, a healthy consumer, and tame inflation, the equities market grinds higher, even as some manufacturing data suggest the economy may worsen.  

In other positive news, there was an announcement from the White House that “Phase One” of the China trade deal is close to being signed. Taking all of these signals into account, the threat of a recession has been removed in the near-term horizon. In fact, should equities continue to shine, bond yields may very well rise as we head into the holiday season. The consumer feels good and is spending. 

Interest rates remain at near historic lows, supporting our thesis that mortgage rates should be locked at these levels. For anyone who has monitored the markets over the long-term, a 10-year Treasury yield under 2.000% is essentially free money in real terms, once inflation is factored in. Jumbo mortgage rates, which price off of the 10-year Treasury, continue to offer borrowers attractive rates even as the economy points to continued growth.