Market Commentary 1/25/19

Government, investment grade, and mortgage rates remain low amidst uncertainty over the government shutdown, China trade negotiations, the Brexit outcome, and overall concern about a slowing global economy.   As stated previously, Wall Street likes gridlock so it is no surprise to see U.S. equities rise in the face of a government shut down.  Furthermore, the Fed has been fairly clear that we may be closer to the neutral rate of interest than previously thought, as well as slowing the reduction of the balance sheet which has been draining liquidity out of the financial system. These measures have served as a boon to equities.

Low rates have helped mortgage applications. Home sales have slowed which has forced some re-pricing that has benefited many who have waited for a break in the upward trend in housing prices.

With interest rates on the 10-year Treasury note under 2.800%, we remain cautious and are biased toward locking in interest rates at these levels.  Should the government open and should we see more positive discussions on the China trade negotiations, we believe rates may move higher and possibly, very quickly.