Fears of global inflation have nudged mortgage bonds higher this week. Even with interest rates at historical lows, the era of negative interest rates appears to be over, at least for now. All of the major 10-year Treasury Bonds (Germany, Japan, UK, and US) are all yielding positive interest rates.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) led the economic news this week. The government reported that the 3rd quarter GDP was much stronger than expected. As with many government reports, the real valuable information is found within the report; it’s not so much about the top-line growth rate. Delving into the report’s details reveals that consumer spending slowed and corporate investment on equipment fell for the 4th straight quarter.

Our experts envision interest rates going a bit higher, but the markets seem to be getting comfortable with a 10-year US Treasury Bond trading between 1.75% to 2.00%. At the moment, we are neutral on whether to float or lock interest rates at these levels.

Mortgage bonds are slightly higher today and stocks are off their lows after a mixed-bag earnings reports hit the wires. There has been no major economic news this week and the presidential debates had little effect on the markets. Today’s session will be relatively quiet in the absence of any economic data and any glaring headlines from across the globe.

Technically, bonds continue to trade in a sideways pattern above support. While we remain biased toward locking in rates, we are closely watching the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds.

Mortgage and U.S. Treasuries traded poorly this week with the 10-year U.S. Treasury closing over 1.80%. Last week we advised that we were closely watching the 10-year Treasury and that a break-out over 1.75% could mean that the 10-year Treasury could climb over to over 2.00%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested she might let inflation “run hot” for a while, triggering a rate spike. Madam Yellen’s comments were not received well, and inflation is the arch-enemy of bonds, thus fueling the rate increase today. Furthermore, other Federal Reserve members have mentioned that we might reasonably expect a rate hike by the end of the year.

With rates still near historical lows, we continue to be biased toward locking in interest rates. At least for the moment, higher rates remain a possibility in government, mortgage, and corporate debt. However, we do not envision runaway interest rates given the ongoing economic and geopolitical risks around the world, not to mention the turbulence around our own upcoming presidential election.

After touching a high of 1.75% this week, the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated in response to the closely watched employment report, which came in under expectations. There were 156,000 new jobs created, which was below the 176,000 expected. The unemployment rate nudged up to 5.00% from 4.90%. Some positives in the report related to the increase in the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) and a small increase in wages.

With employment being one of the two mandates of Federal Reserve (the other mandate being inflation), a closer look at the LFPR illustrates one reason the Fed has been slow to raise interest rates. Currently, there are 94 million people out of the labor force. This is a huge number and represents those who are either no longer working such as retirees, and/or those who have given up on full-time employment.

However, given the “OK” employment report, the financial experts are saying there is a more than 60% chance of a rate hike of .25% by the end of the year.

At the moment, we are carefully watching the 10-year Treasury yield. If we see yields hovering just above 1.75%, we could see rates drift higher. Therefore, we remain agnostic on where interest rates may trend and we can foresee that rates may go either higher or lower.

U.S. Treasuries and mortgage bonds closed in the red on Friday with yields worsening in response to some consumer reports that suggested inflation had increased a touch. August Core Personal Consumption (PCE), which strips out food and energy, rose 0.2%, up from 0.1% in July. Core PCE, the inflationary indicator favored by the Fed, increased from 1.60% to 1.70%. The Fed would like to see core inflation at 2.00% or higher. Further pressuring bonds was a very strong day on Wall Street with equities across the board trading nicely. Oil also had a good week of trading. Oil closed the week up trading over $48 per barrel.

As we enter the fourth quarter 2016, it will be interesting to see where rates head. There are many political and economic factors to think about: U.S. election, Japanese deflation, central bank easing, oil, low rates, etc. Based on this week’s trading, we continue to remain cautious and are biased toward locking in rates in the face of so much uncertainty.

This past week, we’ve observed ongoing dovish commentary from both the Japanese Central Bank and the United States Federal Reserve. Japan initiated the rally towards lower bond yields with its dovish statements including an announcement that it will target a zero rate 10-year government bond and negative interest rates on short term bonds to combat deflation. Here in the U.S., our central bankers punted on raising short term interest rates even though there were three dissension votes on this decision.

The decision to keep rates steady was based on continued anemic long term growth forecasts, mild inflation, and low wage growth. However, the Fed did leave open the possibility of increased rates later this year. With two Fed meetings remaining in the year, the odds of a rate increase on the short term lending rates is 60%. Some on Wall Street are beginning to become concerned that “low rates for longer” could create unforeseen bubbles in certain asset prices. We would not be surprised to see the Fed raise short term rates by ¼% before the end of 2016.

As of the time of this writing, we are cautiously biased toward locking in interest rates as has been our opinion for quite some time.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was stronger for August and beat expectations by rising .2% month over month. Rising CPI indicators are inflationary and increase the likelihood of increasing bond and mortgage yields. Core CPI, which excludes the impact of food and energy, also came in above expectations.

The above inflation numbers will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to give strong consideration to raising short term interest rates by the end of the year.

With core CPI running at a 2.30% annualized rate and with the unemployment rate below 5%, there are calls from prominent Wall Street veterans such as Jamie Diamond of JP Morgan to increase short-term lending rates by year’s end. With this in mind, we remain mindful that the 10-year Treasury Note is still at a very attractive sub 1.750% and locking in interest rates in the face of the inflationary data is a prudent decision. However, given the poor state of the global economy, lowered interest rates would not surprise us. In summary, the world is very complicated from a macro level.

The big news this week was a surprise Fed speech by Fed Governor Lael Brainard who is wildly considered the Fed’s most dovish official. These comments Friday morning, which surprised both the bond and equities market, resulted in a heavy sell-off in U.S. equities, as well as an increase in bond yields. With the world economies addicted to extraordinarily low yields, Friday was a perfect example of how sensitive our markets are to low interest rates and how volatile the markets may become if the Fed raises interest rates near term.

From abroad, a less dovish stance by the European Central Bank put further pressure on bond yields.

Economic reports remain mixed, so there will be a lot of discussion over the coming days as to what matrices the Fed Reserve is studying in deciding future rate movements.  The Fed’s mandate is to support maximum employment and inflation. Based on these two indicators, one could argue that a rate hike is warranted.  However, with the global economies so intertwined, one could also argue there’s a need to keep rates low for longer.

Given the spike in the 10-year Treasury yield from 1.500% to a Friday close of 1.67%, we are biased toward locking in loans. The next couple of weeks could be very volatile from both political and economic standpoints.

As with each new month, all eyes were on the August Jobs Report, which came in lower than expected with 151,000 new jobs created versus expectations of 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate remained at 4.90% and the Labor Force Participation (the amount of people actually in the labor force as % of population) held steady at 62.80%.

This probably means no rate hike announcement at the next Fed meeting. One wonders how many more times the Fed will talk up a rate hike only to be disappointed by a lackluster economic report.

With the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond trading a touch above 1.600%, we are biased toward floating interest rates at these levels ever so cautiously.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend!