Blog - Insignia Mortgage

Market Commentary 5/17/19

Posted on May 17, 2019 by Damon Germanides

In a volatile week on Wall Street, bonds have traded well with the 10-year Treasury note touching 2.350% for the week. Market strategists have had to react to both tough trade talk on China by the Trump administration, as well as elevated tensions with Iran in the Middle East in directing trades this week. Traders flight to quality investments benefited high-quality bond yields such as government-guaranteed and A-paper mortgage debt with yields moving slightly lower but within a tight band.

Back home, the U.S. economy is humming, job growth is robust, and inflation is tame as evidenced by GDP expanding at a 3.2% annual pace in the first quarter. Unemployment touched a 50-year low and year-over-year CPI is running at 1.9%. This begs the question “why are rates so low?” The answer probably lies in long-term economic growth forecasts as well as fears of a looming recession given the potential for an elongated trade negotiation with China and anemic economic growth out of Europe and Japan. Continue to keep an eye on the 2-10 Treasury spread as signs of looming trouble ahead. For the moment, the spread is around 19 basis points and rebounding from the 9 basis point spread just a short while ago. Treasury inversions are one of the most reliable indicators of a recession and need to be taken seriously when they occur.

Home sales have rebounded due to both the time of year as spring is an important home buying season enhanced by the low-interest rate environment. Our feeling remains that the economy is strong and rates should be higher. However, we have no magic ball and so for the moment, we continue to advise clients to lock-in interest rates at these highly attractive levels.

Market Commentary 5/10/19

Posted on May 10, 2019 by Damon Germanides

U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in April but less than expected. Low inflation readings will keep a lid on bond yields, as well as reinforce the Fed’s position keeping short-term lending rates unchanged for the rest of the year. With inflation in check, some are opining for the Fed to lower interest rates. We tend to disagree and believe a wait-and-see position by the Fed is wiser, as there are some indicators that inflation may pick up and that ultimately these low inflation readings may be transitory.

In other important news, trade talks fell apart this week with China. This resulted in higher tariffs being placed today on Chinese goods imported into the U.S., which will likely lead to retaliation from China sometime in the near future. How these negotiations go is anyone’s guess, but the consensus is that a deal will be struck eventually. However, there is always a chance that negotiations could fall apart and a full-blown trade war will occur, or that these negotiations will drag on much longer than expected. Those fears, while remote, have helped push long-dated treasury bonds lower in what is known as a “flight to quality.” The trade tensions also dented equities this week as analysts reassess the effects of ongoing trade tensions on future economic growth and corporate earnings.

Low rates do benefit our borrowers and have spurred both a good home buying season, as well as our clients who have refinanced into lower rates. With the 10-year Treasury note trading under 2.500%, we remain biased toward locking in interest rates. Should the U.S. strike a trade deal with China, we could easily see rates move up from here.

Insignia Mortgage Featured in Wall Street Journal

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Damon Germanides

Insignia Mortgage is featured in the June 12, 2015, Wall Street Journal in the “Jumbo Jumble” section! The article, “More Options for Mega Mortgages,” discusses the emerging trend of the financing behind ‘super jumbos’ with home loans typically ranging from $4 million to $20 million.

Insignia Mortgage, based in Beverly Hills, CA, specializes in tailored programs for high-net-worth borrowers whose mortgage needs are often not met by traditional lenders. Insignia is also well versed in managing the international components of these deals.

Principals Chris Furie and Damon Germanides are among the top of all mortgage originators in the US. In 2014, Chris was ranked #6 in the country with over $190 million in loans and Damon was #32 with over $129 million.
Find out how Insignia Mortgage can help craft a custom mortgage for you!

Market Commentary 5/3/19

Posted on May 3, 2019 by Damon Germanides

A better than expected April jobs report is further evidence of the “Goldilocks scenario” that our economy continues to flourish in – albeit one that complexes many financial experts. With no near-term threat of inflation as well as improving data on productivity and manufacturing, the U.S. is experiencing the greatest recovery in many of our lifetimes. Today’s job report supported the current administration’s belief that the combination of lowered taxes and less restrictive regulation would stimulate the entrepreneurial spirit of American business owners. It is hard to argue against this position at the moment.

There were 263,000 jobs created in April, well above estimates of 180,000 to 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to an almost 50-year low at 3.60% (WOW!). With wage inflation coming in lower than expected, bonds reacted favorably to this report and stocks surged.

Setting aside the myriad of potential issues impacting the market, which include Brexit, the 2020 election, and China-US trade tension, the talk for the moment is the near-perfect market conditions of the U.S. is economy right now. As a rising stock market is a strong vote of confidence for U.S. consumption, we are seeing an increase in home buying activity as well as other financing activity. With rates still not too far off historical lows, it should be a good home buying season.

With the 10-year Treasury range-bound, we are biased toward locking in rates given the positive economic reporting and comments from the Fed this week about their concerns that inflation may be transitory.

Market Commentary 4/26/19

Posted on April 26, 2019 by Damon Germanides

A strong GDP reading of 3.2% for the first quarter of 2019 has allayed concerns about a slowing U.S. economy. This result was well above the expected reading of 2.8%. Report highlights include a decline in inflation, which pushed bond yields lower, as well as strong economic data and retail sales. One point of caution within the report regarded built-up inventories. This first quarter build-up may be followed by a decrease later in the year, possibly creating a drag on later GDP readings.

In further good news this week, housing has picked up. This was expected given the time of year and the nice drop in interest rates.

With continued good news on the U.S. economy, important inflations readings next week, and the 10-year Treasury note trading at around 2.500%, we remain biased toward locking-in rates at these levels. However, we do acknowledge that there are many geopolitical and economic issues around the world that could push yields lower in the coming months.

Market Commentary 4/19/19

Posted on April 19, 2019 by Damon Germanides

The U.S. economy continues to chug along, at least that’s the consensus for the moment. With consumer and business sentiment still going strong, along with a recent surge in retail sales, low inflation and near full employment, the overall picture of the economy is good.

The Fed hitting the pause button earlier this year on raising rates and running off the balance sheet has certainly helped investor confidence as evidenced by the rise in equities. In addition, mortgage applications amongst other finance activities have improved due to the pause in short term rate increases by the Fed. Finally, the steeping of the yield curve has put to rest rumors of recession talk as several top bank economists see no signs of a recession, near-term.

For the moment, we are in a “Goldilocks Environment” with an economy that is neither running too hot nor too cold. As a result, the spring home buying season should be a good one.

Even as other parts of the world are experiencing a slow-down, it is hard to bet against the U.S. and all of the opportunity that this country has to offer its citizens. However, risks remain in Europe, and in our negotiations with China and North Korea, as well as the massive government debt burdens. These economic and geopolitical risks are capping our rates back home as the German 10-year Bund is trading in negative territory juxtaposed to US Treasuries which are trading above 2.50%.

Given the drift up in the 10-year U.S. Treasury from around 2.39% to 2.54%, we believe rates are range-bound. We can see rates continue to drift higher if the U.S. economy continues to stay strong and stocks continue to rise.

Insignia Mortgage Nationally Ranked Top Producers For the 4th Year In A Row

Posted on April 9, 2019 by Damon Germanides

For the fourth year in a row, Insignia Mortgage has achieved top status as among the nation’s top mortgage producers for 2018, as ranked by The Scotsman Guide, National Mortgage News, and they’ve again cracked the $150 Million Club, as ranked by Mortgage Professional America. Insignia Mortgage consistently has the highest average loan size per borrower in the country at over $1,950,000.

Chris Furie and Damon Germanides were ranked as #3 and #4 in the Top Mortgage category nationally respectively for this year by The Scotsman Guide, and #11 and #14 for “Top Dollar”, with a total collective volume of nearly $400 million, a total of 223 closed loans between them and an average loan of nearly $2 million.

Chris and Damon ranked #8 and #10 respectively as top national producers by National Mortgage News.

Chris has been in the mortgage business for 30 years and Damon has been in the business for 15 years.

Insignia Mortgage ranked #1 and 2 in the top 5 of the $150MM Club Mortgage Professional America (MPA) in 2018

Posted on April 9, 2019 by Damon Germanides

MPA Mag, the magazine of American mortgage professionals, has just published their e-zine featuring the top grossing mortgage originators nationwide for 2018. These professionals were nominated by their peers and then substantiated by documentation. Insignia principals Chris Furie and Damon Germanides each earned a spot on this prestigious list of highly accomplished originators for another year.

Both men cracked the top 5 in average volume, with Damon at #1 and Chris comes in at #2 this year, each with an average loan volume of over $1.9 million.

See the full 2018 MPA rankings here.

Market Commentary 4/5/19

Posted on April 5, 2019 by Damon Germanides

The highly watched Monthly Jobs Report put to rest concerns about a slowing economy as the report beat estimates with 196,000 jobs created versus 177,000 expected.

This data should put to rest for now fears on a looming recession and thus help boost stocks and slightly lower bond yields. Unemployment remained at a multi-decade low of 3.80% and hourly earnings rose to 3.20% year over year from February (which is bond-friendly as wage inflation remains tame). The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) remained unchanged at 63.20%.

In other good news, the yield curve steepened. The potential flattening of the curve was a major concern just a few weeks ago, as that would be a sign of impending recession. However, a positive sloping yield curve is an indicator of a healthy outlook for the economy. Also, China and U.S. trade talks appear to be going well for the moment which has also helped stocks move higher. However, concerns remain as global economic growth has slowed in Europe, China, and Japan as central bankers continue to provide massive stimuli to their respective economies to spur growth. Finally, a Brexit deadline is looming in what is turning out to be a very complicated matter. So far, the markets have not been spooked by a no-deal Brexit, but that could change as the deadline approaches.

Here in the U.S., low rates have spurred home buying and refinances. We recommend taking advantage of the low interest environment because if the U.S. economy continues to surge, the Fed rate hike conversation will be back on the table. With this thought in mind, we remain biased toward locking-in interest rates at these very attractive levels, especially with the strong jobs report confirming no recession and the positive chatter regarding U.S. and China relations coming out of Washington.

Market Commentary 3/29/19

Posted on March 29, 2019 by Damon Germanides

Declining mortgage rates have spurred refinance activity, as well as increased the probability of a strong spring home buying season. With inflation in check and the Fed on pause, interest rates should remain attractive for the foreseeable future. However be on the alert as rates may have bottomed and hit resistance in moving lower after rallying greatly since the beginning of the year.

Fears of global economic activity slowing continue to weigh on bonds. The recent drop in rates has pushed several wealthy nations debt to trade at zero % or below. In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury bond briefly dropped below 2.4% this week and the 3 month to 10-year Treasury yields inverted, a potential ominous signal of a looming recession should the inversion hold. An inverting yield curve has predicted most recessions and the inversion is the result of fears of economic growth globally as well as a lack of inflation. These fears will keep investors on their toes and may create a more volatile rate environment in the coming months.

Given that we believe most of the concerns we’ve mentioned are priced in, we are biased toward locking in rates at these very attractive levels. Any unexpected good news could move rates up higher quickly.