Insignia Mortgage’s co-founder and principal, Damon Germanides was recently interviewed by The Scotsman Guide’s chief reporter, Arnie Aurellano, to talk about how he became one of the country’s top loan originators. Damon reveals that working at his family’s beloved West Hollywood restaurant gave him the work ethic that underlies his success and fueled his entrepreneurial spirit.
Read the full Scotsman Guide interview.
A better-than-expected October Jobs Report capped off a robust week of economic news.
Positive earnings from America’s best companies for the third quarter reconfirmed that the U.S. economy remains the envy of the developed world and has the resilience to adjust to a difficult trading environment with China.
On Wednesday, the Fed lowered short-term interest rates in what may be the last of rate cuts for a while. However, the Fed’s actions the past few months have steepened the yield curve and pushed financing costs lower, helping to keep the ball rolling on economic expansion. While business investments are slowing, the job market and consumer confidence readings remain strong, and housing remains a tailwind for growth.
Across the pond, the fear of a chaotic October 31st Brexit was put to rest as well, at least for now. This is all positive for the market and potentially bad for bonds.
Capping off the week, the September Jobs Report was solid and better than expected with positive revisions to both August and September. The unemployment rate was a tick higher, up to 3.60% from 3.500%, wage inflation clocked in at 3% annually, and the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) moved higher. In summary, it was a very good jobs picture for the U.S.
With so much good news to share, interest rates have been moving moderately higher, as predicted. Personally, we see no recession and can easily see the 10-year Treasury moving back up to near 2.000% given all the positive economic data recently released. Mortgage rates have been on the move as well. We continue to advise that locking-in rates at these levels is prudent, especially with interest rates still near historic lows.
Home Value: $5.2 MM
LTV: 70% LTV
Loan: 1st TD of $3.64 M
Terms: 5/1 ARM 5.25%
Challenge: The borrower was looking for a common-sense loan program to pay-off an IRS tax lien and replenish cash reserves. Due to inconsistent cash flow, Insignia Mortgage located a lender willing to offer competitive terms on a large cash-out refi. Closed in under 35 days.
Purchase Price: $6.375 MM
LTV: 70% LTV / 80% CLTV
Loan: 1st TD of $4.46 MM/ LOC of $500,000
Terms: 5/1 ARM 3.625% / Business Line of Credit 6.50%
Challenge: The borrower was earning a large income as a newly minted physician in private practice and had been turned down by a big money center bank. The borrower was looking for a solution that required a lender to be comfortable with a large jump in provable income, with only a 20% down payment on a $6 MM+ purchase.
Purchase Price: $7.5 MM
LTV: 10% Down Payment Cross-Collateralized Loan
Loan: $6.75 MM
Terms: 1st TD 5/1 ARM IO @4.00%
Challenge: The borrowers required a quick closing and needed a cross-collateralization loan to help with down-payment. Insignia Mortgage was able to locate worked with a lender comfortable with offering financing even with a limited cash-down payment, as well as the borrowers’ complex entity ownership structure. The loan closed in 30 days.
Valuation: $5.7MM
LTV: 70%, $4MM
Terms: 1st 5/1 ARM @ 4.50%
Challenge: The borrower was encumbered by the IRS and wanted to take cash out of his primary residence to pay-off the IRS tax lien. The borrower required a bank statement program due to his tax returns not being filed for the current tax year. Insignia Mortgage was able to get the lender comfortable with the borrower’s business cash flow through an in-depth analysis of the business bank statements. The IRS was paid in full through the loan proceeds.
Valuation: $12 MM
LTV: 41.66%
Loan: $5.1 MM
Terms: 1st 5/1 ARM @3.25%
Challenge: The borrowers needed cash-out quickly to participate in a private placement in public equity. The borrowers only had 3 weeks to come up with the funds to close on the investment. Insignia Mortgage was able to work with the borrower and their CPA to structure this complex refinance and quickly obtain loan approval. The property was owned in two separate irrevocable trusts which added an additional layer of complexity to the transaction. The lender agreed to move forward after reviewing the file with their legal team and also to close the loan within 14 days and approved $5 million in cash-out proceeds.
Stocks rose this week following good earnings news from America’s best companies, as well as some positive news on the China-U.S. trade issues. News can change on a dime on this issue so please take this into consideration when reading this post. While durable good orders were down slightly and the China trade conflict has created challenges for U.S. companies doing business in China, feedback from third-quarter earnings supports the slowing economy here in the U.S. and removes the recession narrative for now. Also, with over a 90% probability of a rate cut next week by the Fed, the yield curve has steepened. This is another good indicator that there is no near-term recession on the horizon and that the Fed has gotten out in front of the threat of recession.
New housing purchases slowed as interest rates rose from near-historic lows which put more pressure on borrowers to qualify. Rates are still very attractive and have definitely helped to spur purchase and refinance activity. With the 10-year now at ~1.80% from below 1.500% not too long ago, we continue to advise locking-in interest rates.
In closing, the U.S economy continues to be in a “Goldilocks” trend as inflation is muted, unemployment rates are low, and businesses are doing fairly well. Keep an eye out for results of the Fed committee meeting along with numerous other economic reports which will be trickling in next week.
Bonds traded sideways this week. There was no major headline, but the markets continue to grapple with whether the slowing world economy will lead to a recession here in the U.S.
On a positive note, some good corporate third-quarter earnings and talks of a Brexit deal were good for the equity markets.
On the bearish side, poor retail spending, a lower than forecasted housing starts report and a poor regional manufacturing survey are potentially worrisome. The consumer has been the mainstay of the U.S. economic expansion for the last many years so if they stop spending then the U.S. economy would certainly feel it. Bond yields were capped by news from China that their economy grew at the slowest pace in almost three decades. The tariffs are certainly hurting China’s overall economy which suggests a trade deal with the U.S. may be closer than some think.
Mortgage rates remain attractive and borrowers continue to enjoy the benefits of these low rates in the form of lower payments or the ability to buy a larger home. As we have stated previously, interest rates should be locked-in at these levels. The 10-year has moved from below 1.500% up to 1.75%. For the moment, there is just not enough bad news to move bond yields lower, especially in light of some comments from European and Japanese officials about the lack of effect of negative interest rates. The Fed meets again on October 31st, and the comments from this meeting will be impactful on the future direction of rates.
Positive comments about trade negotiations with China from the White House on Thursday and Friday sent the equity markets on a tear at the expense of bonds. Rates rose as optimism for a trade deal increased. The markets seem to think at least a partial trade deal may be in the works this time. If a deal is inked, it will be an ongoing positive for stocks and will certainly push interest rates higher.
Earlier in the week, the Fed Chairman spoke about his committee’s view on the economy. While the Fed sees the economy slowing, for the moment there are no signs of a recession on the horizon. The Fed reiterated it will do whatever necessary to keep the economic expansion going.
Mortgage rates have also risen this week. As we have written previously, our position continues to be that loans should be locked in when the 10-year Treasury is below 2.00%. We continue to hold this view, especially as the 10-year Treasury yield has moved off of 1.500% and is trading near 1.800%.
