Market Commentary 02/28/25

Market Update: Interest Rates Decline Amid Rising Volatility

Interest rates continued to fall this week as market volatility increased. Equities, including Tesla and Palantir, experienced significant sell-offs, driving investors toward a risk-off environment that favored bonds. Additionally, growing concerns over a slowing economy contributed to the downward movement in yields.

Key Economic Data & Market Indicators

This week’s economic data highlighted a sharp decline in housing sales—an expected outcome given high home prices and elevated borrowing costs. Weekly unemployment claims also saw a notable increase, signaling potential softening in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, aligned with expectations, providing a supportive reading for bond yields.

The Trump administration, through the Department of Government Efficiency, has introduced cost-cutting measures, including job reductions. While bond markets have responded positively in the short term, extended job cuts could weigh on economic growth.

Adding to economic uncertainty are ongoing tariff threats, which could disrupt global trade. The yield curve remains exceptionally flat, with portions re-inverting—historically a warning sign of recession. Many traders are closely monitoring these signals for potential market shifts.

Consumer Spending: Who’s Driving Growth?

Recent reports indicate that the wealthiest 20% of U.S. households are fueling most of the country’s consumer spending and economic growth. This trend is unsurprising, given that high home and equity values—paired with savings yields of 4% to 5%—have largely shielded this group from inflationary pressures.

However, many Americans continue to struggle with rising costs, as cumulative inflation has pushed prices up nearly 23% over the past few years. A key risk to spending remains equity market performance—if stocks correct significantly, even affluent consumers may reduce discretionary purchases. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $107,000 to $84,000—a 21% decline—underscores the volatility in high-risk assets. A broader sell-off across equities and alternative investments could further dampen consumer spending.

Mortgage Rates & Lending Conditions

One bright spot in the current market is the continued decline in mortgage rates, improving affordability for both residential and commercial borrowers.

• Residential Mortgages: Some banks are now offering rates below 6%, with highly qualified borrowers securing loans under 5.5% through relationship pricing.

• Commercial Loans (Sub-$15M): Banks and credit unions are pricing multi-family, retail, and owner-user loans below 6%.

• No-Income Verification Loans: Currently in the mid-6% range for loans up to $5 million.

Bridge Financing Becomes More Competitive

• Professional Developers (Renovation Loans): Leverage-based loans available at 7.99%.

• Bridge & Value-Add Multi-Family Loans: Rates range from 7.99% to 9.50%, depending on loan size and unit count.

Lower borrowing costs should help stimulate both home sales and refinancing activity, particularly if yields continue their downward trajectory.

As economic uncertainty lingers, all eyes remain on interest rates, inflation data, and equity market trends—factors that will shape investment decisions and financial markets in the months ahead. Subscribe to our weekly market commentary to stay up to date.