Equities have been on a tear this week and bond yields ripped higher as recession fears take a back seat to positive commentary out of the U.S. and China on trade talks. Further calming fears about the state of the U.S. economy was better than expected August retail sales report and the steepening yield curve. With the U.S. consumer comprising a majority of the economy, this report reinforces that there is no imminent recession in sight. Just last week the 10-year Treasury note was trading around 1.500% versus the current rate of 1.87%, a remarkable move in just a few days. With rates on the rise, the recent flood of applications by U.S. individual and corporate borrowers will subside, especially if rates move a bit higher from here. However, as we have opined previously, our feeling was that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape and that a 10-year treasury under 1.500% was an alert to lock-in rates.
Across the pond, the ECB eased their monetary policy in response to their stalling economy and doubled down on negative interest rate policies. It is becoming unclear how much negative rates help economic viability, but with rates already so low and Europe teetering on recession, the ECB believes it is best to err on the side of more easing. These policies are creating havoc with respect to how to evaluate risk and are pushing investors into riskier asset classes in search of yield. The one positive for the U.S. borrower is negative rates abroad will limit how high interest rates will move back home.
The next big news event is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Odds heavily favor a rate decrease of one-quarter of one percent on the Fed Funds rate to keep pace with the easing going on in the rest of the developed world. It will be interesting to hear the commentary from the Fed Chair after the rate decision is made and how the markets respond to more easing.
