This has become a tale of two narratives, one in which trade tensions and dropping bond yields portend an imminent slow-down in the U.S and world economy and a heightened risk of recession, and a totally different tale of healthy consumer spending, low unemployment, good business confidence readings, and better than expected earnings, which support the no-recession narrative.
Complicating the recession narrative further was a positive revision on GDP on Thursday even as global bond yields moved lower in the U.S. and more negative in Europe and Japan. While our own personal belief is the recession talk may be overdone, at some point even with the U.S. economy in good shape, should the economic slowdown in Europe and China continue, the U.S. will be affected. This ideology will play a role in the Fed’s September meeting. Odds favor another rate cut as the U.S. looks to keep its interest rates in line with the rest of the developed world.
Mortgage activity has picked up big-time as rates have returned to near historic lows. While the high-priced coastal housing market remains sluggish, we are optimistic the current low rate environment will motivate on the fence buyers.
The drop in monthly payments from refinance transactions will also benefit the economy as more money will be freed up for the purchase of other goods and services. Given our belief about the resilience of the U.S. economy in conjunction with where interest rates are at the moment, it is hard to argue against locking-in purchase and refinance transaction as these levels. However, as evidenced by central bank policy in Europe and Japan, rates could go even lower or even negative in today’s world.