Refinances Surge As Bond Yields Drop
Bond rates continue to dip even as inflation readings run hotter than expected. It is true that some inflation appears to be transitory as evidenced by the expected drop in used car prices and the dramatic fall in lumber costs. However, other costs such as wage inflation are stickier and probably here to stay. Finally, housing costs, which have yet to fully appear in inflation readings yet, will begin to affect the report in a bigger way and should keep inflation readings elevated.
Another factor to consider is that the global central banks have pumped unprecedented amounts of liquidity into the market which has distorted all price discovery, including bond prices. Also, the U.S. interest rates remain some of the highest in the developed world. It is ironic that a country such as Greece has lower bond yields than the U.S. while being a much worse credit risk. Should the markets become untethered from the Fed’s belief in inflation being transitory, rates will move up quickly. The next couple of months will be very interesting and could lead to much more volatile markets. Potential borrowers who have not taken advantage of these ultra-low interest rates should do so while the window is still open. It is hard to imagine with such strong economic growth that the Fed keeps short-term rates pegged at zero for as long as originally projected.
As we move into the middle of summer, purchase and refinance applications remain robust. Low-interest rates continue to drive purchase-money business, but there appears to be a pause in-home price increases as we have seen a very healthy increase over the past year that is not sustainable. Lenders remain eager to lend and non-QM programs are helping borrowers who do not fit inside traditional banks.