Economy, Tariffs, & Interest Rates
U.S. equities saw heightened volatility this week, with the S&P briefly entering correction territory before rebounding strongly. Bonds rose on Friday and ended the week higher, suggesting that market fears may have been exaggerated. Moreover, the uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to burden investors. While some evidence suggests the U.S. economy can perform well amidst higher tariffs, most economists warn of restricted growth and inflationary pressures. However, some financial experts argue that pro-growth policies, deregulation, and AI-driven productivity gains could offset these costs, contributing to market volatility.
Consumer confidence declined more than expected, driven by high living costs and tariff uncertainty. While business confidence remains elevated, there are growing concerns that the economy is slowing. Furthermore, uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations continues to weigh on investors. Business travel is slowing, with mixed reports from public companies suggesting increased uncertainty and consumer distress.
Recession fears have intensified as banks lower year-end forecasts for the S&P. While this could lead to lower interest rates over time, government spending reductions may create short-term economic challenges. A market reset could help bring home prices down, providing relief for buyers currently priced out of homeownership. However, commercial real estate could face renewed pressure as banks tighten lending and push borrowers to refinance or pay down loans. Many properties have seen equity eroded or wiped out, fueling demand for private bridge and mezzanine lending as large funds raise capital to fill financing gaps.